The rules explicitly designate the Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX) station as the resolution source, rather than a generic downtown or metropolitan LA weather forecast. Because the airport is coastal, its temperatures are typically significantly lower than inland areas. Traders face a substantial risk of misjudgment if they rely on general 'Los Angeles weather' without noting the specific measurement station.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '70-71°F' surged from 12.5c to 32c as nearer-term forecasts trended warmer, leading traders to bid up higher temperature ranges. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '64-65°F' plummeted from 26.5c to 2.05c, as updated weather models effectively ruled out such a low maximum temperature for the day.

There is a notable divergence. The specific National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for the KLAX station projects a high near 65°F for April 14, whereas the prediction market strongly favors the 68-71°F range (over 60% implied probability). This often happens when traders reference general 'Los Angeles' weather forecasts, which are typically warmer, rather than the specific coastal KLAX station, which is cooled by the marine layer.

April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the Yes price for 33°C surged from 20.5c to 99.65c, while 34°C plummeted from 41.75c to 0.25c and 35°C dropped from 36.65c to 0.05c. This occurred because as Taipei entered the afternoon local time, the actual high temperature for the day was recorded and locked at 33°C, eliminating the possibility of higher temperatures. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the Yes price for 34°C surged from 2.4c to 19.25c, and 33°C experienced high volatility from 7.15c up to 29c before settling at 21.55c. This was driven by intraday weather forecasts showing stronger-than-expected solar radiation, leading to increased bets on warmer outcomes (33-34°C) just before resolution. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the Yes prices for 33°C and 34°C plummeted from highs of 18.5c and 23c respectively down to single digits (4c-5c). The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, short-term forecasts have largely ruled out extreme heat scenarios, confirming a milder weather pattern.

This is a relatively niche weather prediction market. While people casually check daily forecasts, placing exact bets on the specific daily high temperature range of a particular city is not a mainstream topic of public interest, mostly attracting weather data enthusiasts or arbitrageurs.

Between April 12, 2026, and April 13, 2026, the price of the 33°C option surged from 35.5c to 88.5c, while the 32°C option plummeted from 45.5c to 0.05c. This is because real-time maximum temperature data in Singapore on April 13 reached 33°C, prompting the market to rapidly price in this near-certainty and eliminate the probability of lower temperatures. Between April 11, 2026, and April 12, 2026, the price of the 33°C option fluctuated between 0.315 and 0.235 before returning to 0.32, reflecting minor market jitters due to fine-tuning of meteorological models as the forecast period approaches. Between April 9, 2026, and April 10, 2026, the price of the 31°C option dropped from 33c to 17c (later recovering slightly to 21c), and the 30°C option fell from 24c to 8.5c. The reason is that as the date approaches, meteorological forecast models have converged towards higher temperatures (32°C and 33°C), leading the market to quickly price out the probability of lower temperatures.

Between 2026-04-10 and 2026-04-12, the price of the 17°C option dropped from 29c to 9.5c, and prices for 18°C, 19°C, and 20°C also plummeted, as the latest accurate weather forecasts closer to the resolution date ruled out the possibility of reaching 17°C or higher. Between 2026-04-09 and 2026-04-11, the price of the 15°C option surged from 9.5c to 36c, and the 16°C option rose from 22.5c to 37.5c, due to the convergence of short-term weather models predicting a high temperature around 59-60°F (15-16°C). Between 2026-04-09 and 2026-04-10, the price of the 18°C option plummeted from 27.5c to 11.5c, as updated meteorological forecasts indicated the high temperature is unlikely to reach this value. Between 2026-04-09 and 2026-04-10, the price of the 19°C option plummeted from 17.5c to 3c, due to recent weather forecasts ruling out the possibility of reaching 19°C. Between 2026-04-09 and 2026-04-10, the price of the 20°C option plummeted from 17c to 3.1c, as this temperature is well above short-term forecast expectations.

Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a specific date is a typical niche prediction market event. While weather forecasting is a normal part of daily life, everyday people do not typically place exact bets on a single weather station's daily high.

April 10, 2026 22:23 - April 12, 2026 04:43, the price of '17°C or higher' consistently dropped from 41c to 25.5c, as weather models solidified their predictions of rain and cooler air for Milan on April 13, reducing the likelihood of extremely high temperatures. April 10, 2026 09:23 - April 10, 2026 12:38, the price of '17°C or higher' plunged from 44c to 30.5c, then rebounded to 42c by 15:53, due to aggressive swings in short-range, high-resolution weather models regarding the exact timing of rain and cloud cover.