Explain the resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for this Madrid temperature prediction market using the simplest language (ELI5).

AI-powered analysis for: Explain the resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for this Madrid temperature prediction market using the simplest language (ELI5).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search the historical data on Wunderground for the Madrid Airport (LEMD) station: what is the actual occurrence frequency of highest temperatures on April 13 over the past few years?

AI-powered analysis for: Search the historical data on Wunderground for the Madrid Airport (LEMD) station: what is the actual occurrence frequency of highest temperatures on April 13 over the past few years?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Are there any delays in the data updates from Wunderground's LEMD station? Verify the reliability of this data source and if there is a risk of it 'stopping updates'.

AI-powered analysis for: Are there any delays in the data updates from Wunderground's LEMD station? Verify the reliability of this data source and if there is a risk of it 'stopping updates'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the critical variables affecting Madrid's weather on April 13 (e.g., upcoming cold fronts, heatwaves, or cloud cover)?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the critical variables affecting Madrid's weather on April 13 (e.g., upcoming cold fronts, heatwaves, or cloud cover)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Translate the abstract odds of Madrid's temperature reaching 20°C or 22°C into intuitive probability metaphors (e.g., coin flips).

AI-powered analysis for: Translate the abstract odds of Madrid's temperature reaching 20°C or 22°C into intuitive probability metaphors (e.g., coin flips).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Compare the current Polymarket odds with mainstream weather model forecasts (like GFS or ECMWF) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 13 to identify any deviations.

AI-powered analysis for: Compare the current Polymarket odds with mainstream weather model forecasts (like GFS or ECMWF) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 13 to identify any deviations.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search Twitter or professional weather forums to summarize recent opinions from weather analysts regarding Madrid's mid-April temperature and the bullish/bearish sentiment.

AI-powered analysis for: Search Twitter or professional weather forums to summarize recent opinions from weather analysts regarding Madrid's mid-April temperature and the bullish/bearish sentiment.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

With a few days left until April 13, which temperature option (Yes/No) benefits more from time decay (Theta) if weather forecasts remain unchanged until the resolution date?

AI-powered analysis for: With a few days left until April 13, which temperature option (Yes/No) benefits more from time decay (Theta) if weather forecasts remain unchanged until the resolution date?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Analyze whether Madrid's spring temperature prediction is a purely random event or if there is highly predictable meteorological logic supporting it.

AI-powered analysis for: Analyze whether Madrid's spring temperature prediction is a purely random event or if there is highly predictable meteorological logic supporting it.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the update frequency of major weather websites, list potential catalysts (e.g., release of new weather model runs) that could cause price volatility in this market within the next 48 hours.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the update frequency of major weather websites, list potential catalysts (e.g., release of new weather model runs) that could cause price volatility in this market within the next 48 hours.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Logically project the extreme bottom support temperature for Madrid on April 13 if the worst-case cold front scenario occurs.

AI-powered analysis for: Logically project the extreme bottom support temperature for Madrid on April 13 if the worst-case cold front scenario occurs.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the current low volume of $18.68 in this market, qualitatively assess the slippage risk for a $1,000-level capital entry/exit based on order book depth.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the current low volume of $18.68 in this market, qualitatively assess the slippage risk for a $1,000-level capital entry/exit based on order book depth.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Determine whether current market participants are 'picking up pennies' (high win rate on average weather) or 'buying a lottery ticket' (low win rate on extreme high/low temperatures).

AI-powered analysis for: Determine whether current market participants are 'picking up pennies' (high win rate on average weather) or 'buying a lottery ticket' (low win rate on extreme high/low temperatures).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Analyze whether recent shifts in temperature forecasts are technical pullbacks in model data or fundamental reversals in weather patterns.

AI-powered analysis for: Analyze whether recent shifts in temperature forecasts are technical pullbacks in model data or fundamental reversals in weather patterns.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Considering Wunderground's rule of rounding temperatures to whole degrees Celsius, judge if the current odds discount is enough to offset potential resolution risks caused by rounding.

AI-powered analysis for: Considering Wunderground's rule of rounding temperatures to whole degrees Celsius, judge if the current odds discount is enough to offset potential resolution risks caused by rounding.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the current bid-ask spread and the fair value of the latest weather forecast, suggest a limit order price for the most likely temperature range that is easy to fill without losing edge.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the current bid-ask spread and the fair value of the latest weather forecast, suggest a limit order price for the most likely temperature range that is easy to fill without losing edge.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on your confidence level in the Madrid April 13 weather forecast, suggest a portfolio allocation percentage using the Kelly criterion principle.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on your confidence level in the Madrid April 13 weather forecast, suggest a portfolio allocation percentage using the Kelly criterion principle.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Suggest a core fundamental indicator (e.g., official forecast max temp dropping below 15°C) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate stop-loss.

AI-powered analysis for: Suggest a core fundamental indicator (e.g., official forecast max temp dropping below 15°C) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate stop-loss.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or localized weather websites dedicated to analyzing European weather patterns and Spanish forecasts.

AI-powered analysis for: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or localized weather websites dedicated to analyzing European weather patterns and Spanish forecasts.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Calculate if the excess return is worth locking up funds in this temperature prediction market until the April 13 data is finalized, compared to risk-free yields in DeFi protocols.

AI-powered analysis for: Calculate if the excess return is worth locking up funds in this temperature prediction market until the April 13 data is finalized, compared to risk-free yields in DeFi protocols.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 13?

Weather|$21.9k Vol|

1 days 1 hrs

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 13? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 4 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+7.5¢

17°C(No)

+7.5¢

15°C(Yes)

+2.6¢

14°C(No)

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 13? AI analysis: • +7.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest meteorological forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather and Wunderground), the high temp...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

17°C

YesNo

14.5¢

85.5¢

7¢

93¢

0¢

+7.5¢

15°C

YesNo

37.5¢

62.5¢

45¢

55¢

+7.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

Between 2026-04-10 and 2026-04-12, the price of the 17°C option dropped from 29c to 9.5c, and prices for 18°C, 19°C, and 20°C also plummeted, as the latest accurate weather forecasts closer to the resolution date ruled out the possibility of reaching 17°C or higher. Between 2026-04-09 and 2026-04-11, the price of the 15°C option surged from 9.5c to 36c, and the 16°C option rose from 22.5c to 37.5c, due to the convergence of short-term weather models predicting a high temperature around 59-60°F (15-16°C). Between 2026-04-09 and 2026-04-10, the price of the 18°C option plummeted from 27.5c to 11.5c, as updated meteorological forecasts indicated the high temperature is unlikely to reach this value. Between 2026-04-09 and 2026-04-10, the price of the 19°C option plummeted from 17.5c to 3c, due to recent weather forecasts ruling out the possibility of reaching 19°C. Between 2026-04-09 and 2026-04-10, the price of the 20°C option plummeted from 17c to 3.1c, as this temperature is well above short-term forecast expectations.