April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the price of the 19°C option plummeted from 38.5c to 19c (before recovering slightly to 24c), as updated granular weather models ruled out extreme warming scenarios, slightly lowering the expected peak temperature. April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the price of the 18°C option surged from 34c to 46.5c, driven by a growing consensus among major meteorological forecasts (predicting a high of 64°F/18°C), making it the most probable target range for the daily high.

April 20, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the $100M option surged from 47c to 60.5c. The reason is likely new project developments or positive rumors regarding the token launch, leading to a significant rebound in market expectations for a successful rollout within the year. March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the $100M option plummeted from 67.5c to 38c. The reason is a severe blow to market confidence regarding Theo's successful token launch before year-end, likely influenced by stalled project progress or internal negative rumors, leading to a sell-off in the baseline launch probability option. March 11, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the $1B option collapsed from 6.1c to 1.15c due to a capitulation in confidence regarding a high-valuation launch. While the $100M option (launch probability) remained stable, holders no longer believe Theo can launch as a unicorn, leading to liquidity drying up and sell-offs in high FDV options. February 24, 2026 - February 27, 2026, the price of the $300M option drifted down from 36c to 30.5c, and the $100M option fell from 65c to 60.5c. The reason is the intensifying time decay effect as the market approaches the end of Q1 2026 without a specific TGE announcement, shaking holder confidence and increasing sell pressure. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, the price of the $300M option fell from 40.5c to 35c due to slightly increasing anxiety about whether the token will launch within 2026, leading to time-value decay.