The rules rely on a specific data tracker (xtracker) and have specific conditions for replies and deleted posts (requiring ~5 minutes of uptime). These technical nuances are hard to verify manually and could lead to resolution disputes if the tracker glitches.

Predicting the exact number of tweets by a specific public figure in a given week is highly unusual and random. Outside of hardcore prediction market traders, the general public rarely pays attention to such trivial statistics.

From April 14 to April 15, 2026, the price of the '40-59' option surged from 33c to 78c, while the '20-39' option plummeted from 61.5c to 12.5c. This was due to a significant increase in CZ's post count during this period, crossing the 40 threshold and drastically increasing the likelihood of finishing in the 40-59 range. From April 13 to April 14, 2026, the price of the '20-39' option climbed from 30c to 61.5c, as the steady posting pace over time significantly increased the certainty of the final total landing in this range. From April 11 to April 12, 2026, due to short-term changes in CZ's posting frequency and low market liquidity, several core options experienced wild swings: the '60-79' option plummeted from 41.6c to 9.5c before rebounding to 18.7c; the '80-99' option crashed from 34.9c to 0.3c, quickly surged back to 24.5c, and then fell back to around 6c. This was primarily driven by new data inputs shifting the projected total, triggering capital reallocation. From April 10 to April 11, 2026, the YES prices of multiple options (e.g., 20-39, 40-59, 60-79, 80-99) experienced severe fluctuations of over 10 cents, with some options temporarily surging above 40c before quickly pulling back. This was due to poor market liquidity where small buy orders significantly pushed up prices, creating a massive premium in implied probabilities, which later reverted to reasonable ranges as the market self-corrected and arbitrageurs stepped in. From April 8 to April 10, 2026, the price of the '<20' option plummeted from 46.5c to 10.5c, as CZ's posting frequency early in the period increased, drastically reducing the likelihood of the total being under 20.

Predicting the exact numerical bucket of posts a politician makes on a specific social media platform over a single week is highly granular and mostly functions as a degenerate betting market rather than a topic of serious mainstream interest.

April 14, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the 120-139 bracket surged from 26.5c to a peak of 73.5c, while the 100-119 bracket plummeted from a high of 60c to 16.5c. This was caused by the steady accumulation of posts making it nearly certain the total would surpass 119, triggering a massive capital shift into the 120-139 bracket. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the 140-159 bracket surged from 6.1c to a high of 24.5c before falling back to 5c. This was driven by a temporary burst in posting frequency that raised fears of hitting a higher bracket, which later cooled as the pace slowed. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the 100-119 bracket rose from 34.5c to 49.5c, while the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 26c to 9c. This was caused by Trump's posting frequency remaining consistently high over the tracked period, dramatically increasing the likelihood of finishing in the 100-119 range and sharply reducing the chance of the 80-99 outcome. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 38.5c to 26c, as Trump's actual posting frequency further accelerated, shifting market expectations towards higher brackets like 100-119 and 120-139. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 80-99 bracket dropped from 39.5c to 26c, while the 120-139 bracket rose from 11c to 23.5c. This was caused by an accelerated posting frequency mid-cycle, shifting the projected total higher. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 60-79 bracket dropped from 18.5c to 2.35c. This was caused by the continuous release of actual posting data over the first couple of days, where the pace made reaching such a low total highly unlikely, prompting a rapid capital exit. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 140-159 bracket plunged from 12.15c to 2.2c. This was caused by the release of the first day's actual posting data, making a very high total unlikely and triggering a sell-off. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the 60-79 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 11c, the 120-139 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 15c, and the 140-159 bracket plunged from 26.5c to 4.5c. Multiple brackets initially shared an anomalously identical price (26.5c) due to early illiquidity. As market makers stepped in, a clearer consensus formed around the 80-119 range, causing outlier brackets to correct sharply downwards. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the 80-99 bracket surged from 30c to 42.5c, before settling back to around 35c on the 10th. This movement reflects an initial strong consensus on this median range, which later saw some capital shift towards adjacent high-probability brackets like 100-119.

This is a highly niche and trivial topic. The general public and mainstream media would never naturally wonder or predict the exact number of times the White House account tweets in a specific week. It is a purely manufactured betting market for high-frequency trading.

April 15, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the 200+ option skyrocketed from 3.85c to 74.95c, as a massive burst of tweets from the White House made it highly probable that the total will exceed 200. April 15, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the 160-179 option plummeted from 63c to 2.95c, because the tweet count rapidly surpassed this range, making it virtually impossible. April 15, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged to 58c before falling back to 23c, as the rapid pace initially made this the most likely landing spot, but continued posting pushed projections into the 200+ tier. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 46.5c to 11c, as the White House's posting frequency remained high, making it extremely likely the final count will exceed this range. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 23.5c to 2.85c, as the accumulated data over the weekend confirmed a lower run-rate, virtually eliminating the chance of exceeding 200 posts. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option dropped from 26.5c to 11.5c, because the required posting rate to reach this higher tier became less likely as days passed. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option surged from 23c to 38.5c, as the daily posting rate stabilized, significantly increasing the probability of ending in this upper-middle range. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 36.5c to 4.5c, because as weekend data accumulated, the posting rate stabilized, significantly reducing the likelihood of reaching an extremely high total (200+). April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 12c to 26.5c (later falling to 23c), because as the 200+ probability dropped, some of those extreme expectations shifted to this second-highest range. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 43c to 28c, because the actual rate leaned slightly towards higher ranges (160-179), further compressing the probability of this upper-middle range. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 28c to 5.5c, as the high posting frequency caused a sharp drop in the probability of landing in this relatively lower tier. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option plummeted from 25.5c to 1.45c, because the high frequency of tweets from the White House makes it highly likely that the total will exceed this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 25.5c to 6.5c, also due to the high tweet frequency causing a sharp drop in the probability of this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.05c, because the total number of tweets has already far exceeded this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 60-79 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.2c, because the total number of tweets has already exceeded this range.

The market relies heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and has explicit caveats for replies and deleted posts (e.g., deleted posts count if captured within ~5 minutes). Latency in tracker data capture versus the actual X timeline could lead to resolution disputes, especially near the boundaries of the options.

Predicting the exact number of times a specific politician posts on social media within a given week is a highly niche and novelty concept that nobody outside of prediction market participants would naturally think about or track.

2026-04-14 - 2026-04-15, the price of the 40-59 option plummeted from 38c to 3c, while the 60-79 option surged from 45c to 58c, and the 80-99 option rose from 24.45c to 38.9c. This is because Ted Cruz's post count continued to accumulate, making it highly unlikely that the final total will land in the 40-59 range, prompting capital to rapidly shift to the higher 60-79 and 80-99 brackets. 2026-04-12 - 2026-04-13, the price of the 40-59 option surged from 26c to 49c, while the 80-99 option plummeted from 34.5c to 13.5c. This is because Ted Cruz's posting rate dropped noticeably during this period, leading to a massive downward revision in the market's expectation of the final post count. 2026-04-12 - 2026-04-12, the price of the 60-79 option plummeted from 55.5c to 30c, and the 40-59 option fell from 46.5c to 28.5c, while the 80-99 option surged from 19.5c to 32.5c. This was caused by a short-term spike in posting activity, prompting an upward revision in the market's estimated total volume. 2026-04-10 - 2026-04-11, the price of the 100-119 option plummeted from 29c to 5.5c. This is because, as the first day's posting data became clearer, expectations for a very high frequency of over 100 posts cooled significantly, leading to a rapid withdrawal of capital. 2026-04-10 - 2026-04-11, the price of the 80-99 option fell from a peak of 47c to 28.5c, reflecting the market's recalibration of the total volume based on the latest posting rate. 2026-04-07 - 2026-04-10, the price for the 60-79 option surged from 26.5c to 44c. This is due to the market correcting the initially flat pricing as time progresses, with liquidity converging into the most probable posting range. 2026-04-07 - 2026-04-10, the price for the 80-99 option also surged from 26.5c to 43c, as market expectations became clearer and capital moved toward high-probability brackets. 2026-04-07 - 2026-04-10, the price for the 120-139 option plummeted from 26.5c to 5c, reflecting the very low likelihood of an exceptionally high post volume, prompting a downward market correction. 2026-04-07 - 2026-04-10, the price for the 20-39 option plummeted from 25.5c to 1.55c, as Cruz's current activity level virtually rules out such a low post count.

The title simply says 'tweets', but the rules explicitly exclude standard 'replies', which make up a massive portion of Musk's activity, creating a counter-intuitive pitfall. Additionally, resolution relies heavily on a specific custom tracker (xtracker), introducing technical risks of missed counts or downtime, especially for deleted posts.

This is a highly typical long-tail novelty market. Outside of prediction market degens, nobody naturally contemplates or calculates the exact number of times a specific celebrity posts on social media during a random week. It is purely for entertainment.

April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of the '260-279' option plummeted from 29.85c to 5.95c, as the accumulated post count is nearing or exceeding this lower bound, drastically reducing its probability. April 14, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of the '300-319' option surged from 20.5c to 36.5c, as a steady posting rate made it the most mathematically probable settlement bracket. April 15, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the '260-279' option surged from 13.85c to 29.85c, as a short-term slowdown in posting brought this lower bracket back into probable territory. April 12, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the '300-319' option surged from 6.5c to 35.5c, as the posting speed stabilized at a high level, making it the mathematically most likely settlement bracket. April 12, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the '320-339' option surged from 3.3c to 24.0c, as increased activity raised the upper bounds of the final count expectation. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the '240-259' option plummeted from 23.5c to 1.05c, as the posting speed far exceeded expectations, effectively confirming this lower bracket will be bypassed.