The market heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker). Technical risks exist regarding how replies and deleted posts are counted, especially if the scraper experiences downtime or fails to capture a post deleted within 5 minutes, leading to discrepancies.

Predicting the exact number of social media posts a politician makes in a specific week is a highly niche, novelty-driven market. General audiences rarely think about or track this specific metric.

April 22, 2026 - April 22, 2026: The 200+ option surged from 12.1c to 39.2c, while the 160-179 option plummeted from 47.7c to 3.9c, as the posting pace skyrocketed again towards the end of the period, significantly boosting market expectations of a total exceeding 200 posts. April 22, 2026 - April 22, 2026: The 180-199 option surged from 32.9c to 75.2c before retreating to around 61.8c, reflecting intense intraday volatility. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026: The 160-179 option surged from 12.7c to 47.7c, while the 180-199 option plummeted from 60.5c to 35c. This occurred because the posting pace slowed significantly. April 21, 2026 - April 21, 2026: The 180-199 option surged from 40.9c to 64.6c, while the 200+ option plummeted from 52.3c to 23.5c. This occurred because the posting pace clearly slowed down. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026: The 200+ option plummeted from 52c to 26c, while the 180-199 option surged from 40c to 58c. Reason: The posting pace showed marginal slowing. April 18, 2026 - April 21, 2026: The 200+ option surged from 6c to 52c, and the 180-199 option rose from 19c to 41c, while the 160-179 option dropped from nearly 40c back to 6c. Reason: The posting pace consistently exceeded estimates. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026: The 'Yes' prices for high-tier options like 160-179, 180-199, and 200+ surged significantly because Trump posted at an accelerated pace on the first day of the tracking period.

Predicting the exact number of tweets an official posts in a random week is highly granular and niche. It is not a mainstream political event (like an election or legislation) but rather an entertaining statistic regarding social media engagement that the general public would never organically think about.

2026-04-21 to 2026-04-22, the price of the '<20' option fell from 55c back to 38.3c, while the '20-39' option recovered from 50.5c to 62.5c. This was driven by new tweets from the Mayor, pushing the total count closer to or into the 20-tweet threshold and restoring market confidence in the 20-39 range. 2026-04-20 to 2026-04-21, the price of the '<20' option surged from 4.85c to 46c, as the cumulative tweet pace fell far below expectations, significantly increasing the likelihood of the final count staying under 20. 2026-04-20 to 2026-04-21, the price of the '20-39' option plummeted from 91c to 51.5c, as the extremely slow posting rate caused the market to lose confidence that the final count would reach 20. 2026-04-21, the '160-179' option saw a brief anomalous price spike from ~1.4c to 25.5c, likely due to low liquidity driven by negligible trading volume. 2026-04-18 to 2026-04-19, the price of the '20-39' option surged from 58.5c to 90c, as the posting frequency stabilized within the corresponding range with the accumulation of early data and increased market activity, leading the market to further confirm the certainty of this outcome. 2026-04-18 to 2026-04-19, the price of the '<20' option dropped from 18.2c to 7.2c, as the initial posting pace indicated the final count would easily exceed 20. 2026-04-18 to 2026-04-19, the price of the '40-59' option fell from 18.1c to 6.45c, as early activity showed no signs of a high-frequency posting pace, cooling down expectations for a high count. 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-18, the price of the '20-39' option climbed from 68c to 79.5c, as the posting frequency stabilized within the corresponding range with the accumulation of first-day data, leading the market to further confirm the certainty of this outcome. 2026-04-14 to 2026-04-17, the price of the '20-39' option surged from 25.5c to 66c, as traders confirmed this range aligns best with the candidate's actual posting frequency based on early data and increased market activity. 2026-04-14 to 2026-04-17, the price of the '<20' option dropped from 25c to 11.15c, as the posting pace indicated the final count would easily exceed 20. 2026-04-14 to 2026-04-17, the price of the '60-79' option fell from 24.5c to 4.6c, as early activity showed no signs of a high-frequency posting pace, cooling down expectations for a high count. 2026-04-14 to 2026-04-17, the prices of '80-99' and multiple higher frequency brackets plummeted from default levels of ~24c to near zero (1-2c), as actual observed daily post rates corrected these initial default prices.

Moderate risk exists. The resolution heavily relies on a custom Polymarket tracker which might experience scraping errors or downtime. Furthermore, the nuances around 'replies on the main feed' and deleted posts surviving 'around 5 minutes' introduce ambiguity that could trigger resolution disputes near the boundaries.

Quite exotic. Betting on the exact number of tweets a specific politician makes during a random future week lacks macro or practical significance. Few people would naturally ponder this question, making it a classic novelty and entertainment-focused prediction market.

April 20, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of '120-139' fluctuated wildly between 33.6c, 72.5c, and 35.5c, while '140-159' surged from 13.5c to 50.9c before retreating. This was caused by inconsistent posting frequencies from Ted Cruz in the mid-to-late observation period, leading to constant expectation resets between adjacent brackets. April 19, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price for '140-159' surged from 9c to 50.95c, and '160-179' spiked from 7.45c to 39.85c. This was caused by a sharp increase in Ted Cruz's posting frequency mid-observation period, leading the market to aggressively raise its expected total count. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price for '120-139' surged from 3.6c to 40.7c, settling at 38.45c, while '140-159' spiked from 4c to 38.4c before dropping back to 9c. This was due to a sudden increase in Ted Cruz's posting frequency over the weekend, causing the market to adjust expectations upwards. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price for '100-119' surged from 13.5c to 45.5c, while '120-139' experienced extreme volatility (spiking from 2.5c to 40.6c before dropping back to 8.5c). This was due to an erratic actual posting rate in the early observation period, causing expectations to flip rapidly between 120+ and 80-119 before settling on the 100-119 center. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the prices for '80-99' and '60-79' saw massive spikes. '80-99' jumped from 21c to 58c before settling at 36c, and '60-79' rose from 18c to 36c, as the market observed his recent posting frequency to be lower than previously expected. April 14, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of '20-39' plummeted from 25c to 3.9c, while '140-159' and '160-179' both crashed from 24c to around 2c. The reason is that extreme low and high-frequency posting scenarios are being largely ruled out as the observation period approaches.