Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a somewhat niche and novelty topic for retail prediction markets. However, it is not absurd, as weather is scientifically measurable and weather derivatives are common in professional fields.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 36.5c to 99.7c. The reason is that as the target date moved past noon into the evening, the actually observed peak temperature was confirmed to fall into the 23°C range, leading to absolute market consensus. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 24°C option plummeted from 31c to 0.25c because the actual temperature failed to reach 24°C, eliminating this possibility. May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option plummeted from 32c to 11.5c, as real-time forecasts indicated temperatures would rise above this range.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from 35.5c to 98.55c, while the 23°C option plummeted from 48c to under 2c, because real-time meteorological observations on the resolution day gradually confirmed the highest temperature was 22°C. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 23°C option plummeted from 48c to 24.5c (earlier phase), as updated meteorological data closer to the resolution day indicated a slightly lower high temperature, leaning towards 22°C. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from 28c to 41c (earlier phase), because weather forecasts narrowed the prediction range, locking in 22°C as the most probable high temperature. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the 21°C option dropped from 30c to 6.5c and then rebounded to 26c, reflecting fluctuations in weather models regarding the impact of cold air.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 33°C option surged from 36c to 99.85c, while the 34°C option plummeted from 18.8c to 0.15c. This occurred because as the late afternoon of May 3 local time arrived, the daily maximum temperature was effectively recorded and locked in at 33°C. May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 33°C option climbed steadily from around 28.5c to 41.5c, while the 31°C option plummeted from 21c to 9.5c. This shift was driven by approaching resolution and higher-than-expected early morning temperatures on May 3, shifting market confidence towards a higher peak temperature.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 28c to 61c due to meteorological models converging and adjusting the expected high temperature upwards. May 1, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 15.5c to 35.5c, also driven by short-term weather forecast adjustments that ruled out lower temperatures.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the 29°C option surged from 30c to 99.75c, while the 28°C option plummeted from 42.5c to 0.15c. The reason is that on the settlement day, the actual temperature successfully climbed into the 29°C range before the cold front and rainbands arrived in the afternoon, overturning the market's previous overpricing of the cooling effect. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to 8.5c, and the 29°C option dropped from 48c to 35.5c, while the 28°C option surged from 22.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approached, updated weather forecasts confirmed heavier rain and cloud cover, prompting the market to discount the likelihood of higher temperatures and shift the peak probability range down to 28°C.