May 13, 2026 - May 16, 2026: The Montreal Canadiens' Yes price surged from 51.5c to 79.5c (while the Buffalo Sabres dropped from 50c to 20.5c) because the Canadiens won Game 5 on May 14 with a 6-3 victory, taking a 3-2 series lead and pushing the Sabres to the brink of elimination. May 11, 2026 - May 13, 2026: The Montreal Canadiens' Yes price dropped from 69.5c to 51.5c because the Buffalo Sabres won Game 4 on May 12, tying the series at 2-2.

From May 14, 2026, to May 15, 2026, the Yes price of the 13°C option rose from 36.5c to 50.5c. This is because, as the target date arrived, weather forecast models further confirmed the high probability of the maximum temperature falling in this range, prompting capital to quickly buy in. Prior to this, over the past 3 days, prices for all options remained stable, reflecting a convergence of expectations as weather forecasts stabilized.

Weather prediction is relatively common in prediction markets, but for the general public, predicting the exact highest temperature in Ankara on a specific day is quite niche unless they have travel plans.

May 14, 2026 - May 15, 2026: The price of the 20°C option dropped from 37.5c to 22c. This shift occurred as the expiration date approached and updated forecasts (including Wunderground) adjusted the expected high to 71°F (approx 21.6°C), shifting the market's focus toward 21°C and 22°C. May 12, 2026 - May 14, 2026: No other options experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents, indicating stable market expectations previously.

Predicting the exact high temperature in a specific Indian city on a given day is a very niche market. Outside of local residents or weather enthusiasts, few people would consider this question.

From May 14, 2026, to May 15, 2026, the price of '41°C or below' surged from 83c to 96c. This was driven by the approaching resolution date and updated definitive weather forecasts (specifically from Wunderground) predicting maximum temperatures of 39°C-40°C, which eliminated the uncertainty of extreme heat spikes.