From May 14, 2026, to May 15, 2026, the Yes price of the 13°C option rose from 36.5c to 50.5c. This is because, as the target date arrived, weather forecast models further confirmed the high probability of the maximum temperature falling in this range, prompting capital to quickly buy in. Prior to this, over the past 3 days, prices for all options remained stable, reflecting a convergence of expectations as weather forecasts stabilized.

From May 14 to May 15, 2026, the price of 12°C dropped significantly from 31.5c to 15c. Concurrently, 14°C rose from 19c to 28c, and 11°C dropped from 13.5c to 3.95c. These substantial movements reflect increasing certainty in meteorological forecast models as the target date of May 16 approaches, causing the market to upwardly revise its expectations from the 11-12°C range to the 13-14°C range.

Weather prediction is relatively common in prediction markets, but for the general public, predicting the exact highest temperature in Ankara on a specific day is quite niche unless they have travel plans.

May 14, 2026 - May 15, 2026: The price of the 20°C option dropped from 37.5c to 22c. This shift occurred as the expiration date approached and updated forecasts (including Wunderground) adjusted the expected high to 71°F (approx 21.6°C), shifting the market's focus toward 21°C and 22°C. May 12, 2026 - May 14, 2026: No other options experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents, indicating stable market expectations previously.

Predicting the exact high temperature in a specific Indian city on a given day is a very niche market. Outside of local residents or weather enthusiasts, few people would consider this question.

From May 14, 2026, to May 15, 2026, the price of '41°C or below' surged from 83c to 96c. This was driven by the approaching resolution date and updated definitive weather forecasts (specifically from Wunderground) predicting maximum temperatures of 39°C-40°C, which eliminated the uncertainty of extreme heat spikes.