Based on the latest trading data and the trend approaching the expiration date, market expectations ...

From March 31 to April 1, 2026, the price of the '84°F or higher' option dropped from 56.5c to 28.5c, while the '82-83°F' option rose from 20.5c to 36.5c. The reason is that as the date approaches, the accuracy of weather forecasts improves, reducing the probability of extreme high temperatures (84°F and above) and making the 82-83°F range more likely. From March 29 to March 31, 2026, the price of the '84°F or higher' option surged from 25.5c to 56.5c, while lower temperature brackets like '74-75°F' and '76-77°F' plummeted from 17.65c and 20c to around 2c. This was due to updated meteorological models and forecasts (such as NWS) closing in on the resolution date, which ruled out significant cooling and anticipated strong southerly winds bringing warm, moist air from the Gulf, thus drastically pushing up market temperature expectations. Between 18:50 and 19:55 on March 29, 2026, the price of the '82-83°F' option surged from 16.5c to 33.5c, and the '65°F or below' option plummeted from 24.5c to 10c, driven by updated forecasts that reduced the likelihood of extreme cold, causing market capital to shift towards the >80°F ranges.

Today is April 1, 2026, and the market resolves on April 3. Daily high temperatures in Singapore in ...

Mar 29, 2026 - Apr 1, 2026, the Yes price for 31°C dropped from 34.5c to 13.5c, as weather forecasts closer to the target date increasingly showed the high temperature would likely exceed 31°C. Mar 29, 2026 - Mar 31, 2026, the Yes price for 33°C rose from 26.5c to 45c, as weather forecasts became more concrete with the approaching date, shifting expectations to higher temperatures. Mar 29, 2026 - Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of 27°C plummeted from 43c to 24.5c, and 26°C surged from 6c to 22.5c, likely due to poor liquidity causing small trades to easily sweep the order book and create abnormal price swings.

Recent price trends indicate the market believes the highest temperature in Wuhan on April 2 is most...

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the prices of 20°C and 21°C experienced intense volatility. 20°C surged from 17.5c to a peak of 36c, and 21°C rebounded from 18c to 36c before settling at 28c, reflecting adjusted expectations for warmer temperatures in the latest forecasts. From March 29 to March 31, 2026, multiple options experienced high volatility (>10c) due to shifting weather models. For instance, the Yes price for 24°C crashed from 40c to 5c as new forecasts indicated cold air and rain would suppress temperatures. Meanwhile, options like 19°C and 21°C saw wide price swings, reflecting market disagreement over the exact timing of frontal systems and cloud cover.

According to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) and major meteorological s...

Predicting the precise daily high temperature for a specific city is a relatively niche quantitative event. The general public usually does not ponder or trade exact daily temperature ranges, though it is a standard meteorological product on specialized prediction market platforms.

Between March 29 and April 1, 2026, the prices for multiple extreme temperature options including '45°F or below', '48-49°F', '50-51°F', '62-63°F', and '64°F or higher' crashed from around 25c to under 1c. This occurred because short-term weather forecast models gained high certainty just days before resolution, effectively ruling out extreme warm or cold anomalies. Between March 29 and March 31, 2026, the price of '52-53°F' dropped from 25.5c to 10.5c as weather forecasts gradually revised the expected high temperature upwards, decreasing the likelihood of this cooler range.

As the target date (April 2) approaches, meteorological forecast models have largely converged. The ...

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026: The price for the 20°C option surged from 26.5c to 45c, while the 18°C option plummeted from 19.5c to 2.3c. This was due to the approaching resolution date and the latest precise meteorological forecasts ruling out abnormal low temperatures, locking in on the 20°C warming expectation. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026: The 21°C option experienced a rollercoaster, dropping from 32c to 16.5c (later bouncing to 30c), reflecting the uncertainty of intraday peak temperature predictions wavering slightly between 20°C and 21°C. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The 20°C option experienced significant volatility, surging from 18.5c to a peak of 35.5c before settling around 29.5c, due to updates in short-term meteorological models re-evaluating the strength of the high-pressure system. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The 22°C option plummeted from 28.5c to 14.5c (and later down to 6.5c) as a slight increase in expected cold front activity capped the probability of higher temperatures. Prior to March 29, 2026: Price fluctuations were mild with no single move exceeding 10 cents, as market expectations smoothly converged toward the 19°C to 21°C range.