As the 2025-26 NHL regular season enters its final month, Matthew Schaefer's dominance remains uncha...

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes on $30M and No on $50M simultaneously Plan Description: Due to inclusive valuation logic, if FDV > $50M occurs, FDV > $30M must also occur (paying $1). If i...

The market continues to exhibit severe monotonicity violations (logical inversions). The Yes prices ...

The risk lies in the ambiguity of 'launch' and 'publicly tradable'. While the rules specify 'active, publicly transferable and tradable', disputes could arise if a liquidity pool is created on a DEX with negligible liquidity (fake tokens or high slippage). Additionally, calculating FDV relies on accurate Total Supply data, which is often opaque for early-stage projects.

This is a market about the future valuation of a specific, small-cap crypto project (Hurupay). Unless one is a crypto-native user focused on niche airdrops or stablecoin payment sectors, this is unknown to the general public. It is a highly segmented niche market.

With slightly over 2 days left until settlement, market expectations have further concentrated in th...

This is a typical niche data market. While not extremely bizarre (given the high profile of Trump's social media activity), it involves betting on granular personal behavioral data rather than traditional macro events or financial outcomes, warranting a medium novelty score.

March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '100-119' surged from 26c to 40c, because an acceleration in posting speed increased the likelihood of the final total landing in a higher bracket. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '80-99' surged from 37c to 52c before slightly adjusting to 47.5c-50.5c, as the latest posting frequency and tracker data as time progressed pushed up the probability valuation of this bracket, making it the most likely outcome. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '120-139' dropped from 16.5c to 4.05c, as the remaining time became insufficient to support such a high total, leading the market to heavily discount its probability. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '60-79' experienced violent fluctuations, plummeting from 16.6c to 4.4c before bouncing back to 14.2c, as the market rapidly adjusted its expectations for Trump's posting frequency across different brackets as time progressed. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, prices across all brackets experienced violent fluctuations, due to a market correction from an extremely irrational initial state where all options were priced above 40c, returning to a realistic probability distribution model.

As of April 1, 2026, the Colorado Avalanche (19.95c) securely hold the top spot as championship favo...

Arbitrage Plan: Buy No for 'June 30, 2026'. Plan Description: The current No price is around 97.2c. Since the contract text explicitly specifies the year 2025, wh...

The current date is early April 2026. The contract rules explicitly state that the evaluation period...

The title 'Macron out by...?' is vague, and the displayed option 'June 30, 2026' contradicts the specific timeframe defined in the rules ('Jan 2 to Dec 31, 2025'). The rule text explicitly sets the deadline as Dec 31, 2025, yet the front-end 'option' label suggests 2026. This misalignment creates a significant risk for users who rely on the option label rather than the detailed rules.

If Macron were to suddenly resign or be forced out in 2025, it would be a structural shock (Score 5) for France and the EU, causing a crash in the CAC 40 index and severe volatility in the Euro (EUR). As a core Eurozone member, instability in France would drive capital toward safe havens like German Bunds. Since specific European indices might not be listed as standard assets here, the impact is best gauged via broad European equity exposure or currency markets.