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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
June 30, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
7 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The core judgment window (Jan 2, 2025, to Dec 31, 2025) has completely concluded. As the current date is March 18, 2026, historical facts confirm that Emmanuel Macron remained President of France throughout 2025 without resigning or being removed. Therefore, the physical outcome is deterministically 'No'. The intrinsic value of the 'Yes' option is strictly 0. The current price of 3.1 cents merely reflects the time cost of money, liquidity premiums, or misunderstanding of the rules by a minority of participants.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No'
Plan Description:
This is a nearly risk-free yield opportunity. The event judgment window has passed, and the outcome is deterministically 'No', but the market awaits settlement on June 30, 2026. Buying 'No' at 96.9 cents and holding for approximately 104 days until maturity results in a 100-cent payout, a spread of 3.1 cents. This equates to an annualized yield of roughly 11.23%, primarily compensating for the time value of capital.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 3¢
|Annualized yield: 11.23%
Rule Risk
The title 'Macron out by...?' is vague, and the displayed option 'June 30, 2026' contradicts the specific timeframe defined in the rules ('Jan 2 to Dec 31, 2025'). The rule text explicitly sets the deadline as Dec 31, 2025, yet the front-end 'option' label suggests 2026. This misalignment creates a significant risk for users who rely on the option label rather than the detailed rules.
Hedging
German Bunds (10Y)
CAC 40
EUR/USD
If Macron were to suddenly resign or be forced out in 2025, it would be a structural shock (Score 5) for France and the EU, causing a crash in the CAC 40 index and severe volatility in the Euro (EUR). As a core Eurozone member, instability in France would drive capital toward safe havens like German Bunds. Since specific European indices might not be listed as standard assets here, the impact is best gauged via broad European equity exposure or currency markets.
