April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of 28°C surged from 30c to 43.5c, while 29°C plummeted from 33c to 10.6c on the night of April 6 before partially recovering. This was due to the latest high-resolution weather model updates providing more clarity on the arrival time of a frontal precipitation system, cementing 28°C as the most likely daytime peak. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the prices of multiple temperature brackets (e.g., 26°C, 28°C, 29°C, 30°C) experienced severe volatility exceeding 10c. For instance, the Yes price for 30°C surged from 9.5c to 23.5c before dropping back to 10c, while 28°C dropped from 30.5c to 19.5c before recovering. This was caused by discrepancies in short-term meteorological model updates (like GFS/ECMWF) regarding the exact timing and intensity of a precipitation system (thunderstorms) expected on April 8, which heavily impacts daytime temperature peaks.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 13c to 45c (later settling around 34.5c), and the 25°C option surged from 4.2c to 17.7c; concurrently, the 22°C option plummeted from 32.5c to 8.5c. This occurred because updated meteorological models significantly raised the expected high temperature, prompting traders to shift their consensus rapidly from the 22-23°C range up to the 23-24°C or even 25°C range. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from 12.5c to 31.5c, and the 23°C option surged from 13c to 28.5c, while the 24°C option plummeted from 27c to 13c. This shift occurred as early meteorological models slightly downgraded the expected high temperature, shifting trader consensus from 24°C down to the 22°C-23°C range.

There is a notable divergence. Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Google Weather/Weather.com) currently predict a high of 72°F (approx. 22.2°C) for Paris on April 8. However, Polymarket traders are heavily favoring 23°C and 24°C, which together account for over 60% of the implied probability. This discrepancy likely arises because traders are factoring in the specific historical measurement biases at the Wunderground CDG station, or they are anticipating a faster progression of the unusually warm air mass currently moving across Western Europe, thus pricing in a premium over generic forecasts.

The title asks for the highest temperature in 'Seoul', but the rules explicitly state that the resolution source is the Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI). Incheon Airport is coastal and typically cooler than downtown Seoul. This presents a significant trap for traders who rely solely on the title. Additionally, the resolution precision is based on whole degrees Celsius, requiring attention to how Wunderground rounds or truncates data.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of the '15°C or higher' option dropped from 18.5c to 8c, as short-term weather models confirmed cooler air moving south. April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '14°C' option dropped from 24.5c to 12.5c, due to downward revisions in the forecasted high temperatures. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the '15°C or higher' option fell from 48c to 19.5c, as the latest weather forecasts indicated temperatures would be lower than previously expected. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the '11°C' option surged from 8.5c to 23c, as the forecasted temperature median shifted downwards, significantly increasing the probability of this range.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a standard basic category on prediction market platforms, but it remains a relatively niche and unglamorous routine data forecasting event for the mainstream public.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026: The price of '23°C or higher' plummeted from 53.5c to 33.5c as approaching settlement dates brought cooler updated temperature forecasts. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of '23°C or higher' rose from 31c to 47.5c, peaking at 48c, as the latest meteorological data likely revised the expected high temperature upwards. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of '20°C' fell from 16.5c to 12.5c, due to the expected warming decreasing the probability of lower temperature ranges. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of '21°C' dropped from 25.5c to 15.5c, also reflecting the market's shift towards expectations of higher temperatures.

Divergence exists. The market prices a combined ~70% probability for 22°C and 23°C+, while the latest mainstream forecasts (e.g., Wunderground) project a high of roughly 69°F (21°C) for April 8. The market is overpricing extreme highs and may lag behind the latest cooling trends in forecasts.

From April 6, 2026, to April 7, 2026, the price of '24°C or higher' surged from around 41.5c to 74.5c as weather models further confirmed unseasonably extreme heat in London. From April 6, 2026, to April 7, 2026, the price of '22°C' plummeted from 30c to approximately 3.75c, because expectations for high temperatures were upgraded, ruling out milder conditions. From April 6, 2026, to April 7, 2026, the price of '24°C or higher' fell from 68c to 50.5c (before rebounding), likely because weather forecast models slightly revised their extreme predictions downwards as the date drew nearer. From April 5, 2026, to April 6, 2026, the price of '24°C or higher' surged from around 6.5c to 68c, as the latest short-term weather models sharply upgraded the forecast for extreme high temperatures in the London area. From April 5, 2026, to April 6, 2026, the price of '21°C' plummeted from around 29.5c to 8c, due to the market's reduced expectation for milder temperatures. From April 4, 2026, to April 5, 2026, the price of '22°C' increased from around 21c to approximately 27.5c, peaking at 33.5c, as short-term weather models concentrated the expected temperature in this range. From April 4, 2026, to April 5, 2026, the price of '19°C' dropped from around 17.5c (peak 24.5c) to about 5.5c, due to revisions in the forecast reducing the likelihood of unusually low temperatures as the date approached. From April 4, 2026, to April 5, 2026, the price of '24°C or higher' fell from around 14c to about 6.5c, reflecting a decreased probability of extreme high temperatures (before sharply rebounding).