With only 1 day remaining, major meteorological models (Google/IBM/AccuWeather) have converged. IBM ...

Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, the price of '20°C' crashed from 20.5c to 3.3c, and '19°C' dropped from 28.5c to 14.5c, as the approaching forecast confirmed a significant cooling trend, ruling out warm spring scenarios. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, the price of '17°C' surged from 17c to 34.5c, and '16°C' surged from 11c to 27.5c, because capital rapidly rotated into the 16-17°C core range predicted by meteorological models (IBM/Google) as the heatwave options collapsed.

Significant divergence exists. The market currently assigns a ~30% probability (30c price) to '18°C', making it the second favorite. However, all mainstream weather forecasts, including the resolution source's parent company IBM, indicate a high of only around 16°C, with some reaching 17°C. The market pricing for 18°C is significantly lagging behind meteorological data and is severely overpriced.

As of the afternoon of March 21 (Toronto time), the latest authoritative local weather forecasts (Th...

March 20-21, 2026, the price of '3°C' surged from 24.5c to 37.5c, indicating capital rotating out of the extreme '5°C or higher' bucket but incorrectly settling on a moderately warm median, rather than fully correcting to the forecasted cold range. March 20-21, 2026, '5°C or higher' fell from 26c to 16c, continuing its previous crash, reflecting the market's growing realization that extreme warmth (>5°C) is unlikely. March 20-21, 2026, '4°C' remained elevated at 25c after volatility, showing the market is still hedging for 'slightly warmer' outcomes in the absence of conviction regarding the cold front's intensity.

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket prices imply that 3°C or 4°C are the most probable outcomes (combined ~62%), which may correlate with some global weather models (e.g., Foreca predicting 6°C). However, Canada's most authoritative local sources (The Weather Network and Environment Canada) consistently forecast a high of 1°C to 2°C. Market pricing is severely lagging behind the latest local meteorological updates.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy '27°C' Yes Plan Description: This is a 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity. The event has effectively concluded, with 27°C being the con...

Local time in Shenzhen is past 9 PM, meaning the daily high for March 22 has been finalized. Real-ti...

On March 22, 2026 (Sunday), prices flipped dramatically as Shenzhen moved into the afternoon and temperature data breached critical thresholds. Earlier, 26°C was a contender, but as Wunderground readings crossed 26.5°C (approx 80°F), the 26°C option collapsed to near zero, and capital surged into 27°C, driving it from a low probability to over 99c and locking in the outcome.

As the event date (March 23) approaches, forecast uncertainty has significantly decreased. The marke...

Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 22, 2026, '30°C or higher' crashed from 36c to 5c, and '29°C' fell from 29.5c to 10c. The reason is that as the resolution date neared, mainstream weather models did not validate the extreme heat scenario, causing the speculative bubble based on AccuWeather data to burst. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 22, 2026, '27°C' surged from ~24c to a peak of 41.5c (settling at 37c), as capital fled the collapsing high-heat options and flowed back into the reasonable range aligned with mainstream forecasts (IBM/Wunderground). Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, '25°C' crashed from 26c to 1.25c, indicating the market's complete abandonment of lower-median temperature possibilities early on.

Given the current date of Sunday, March 22, 2026, the next PMQs is scheduled for Wednesday, March 25...

This is a typical 'Political Word Bingo' market. While Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) is a serious, regular political event, bettors are focused on the occurrence of specific vocabulary rather than policy substance. This gamification of political rhetoric qualifies it as a moderately exotic novelty market.

March 20, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of 'Reform' steadily rose from 73c to 84c, driven by market expectations that Starmer will be forced to directly address Reform UK's (likely led by Nigel Farage) radical stance on the Iran crisis or domestic order, a political confrontation highly anticipated in PMQs. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, 'Scotland' stabilized in the 41c-45c range after extreme volatility (surging from 13c to 53c), reflecting uncertainty about the SNP's agenda setting and whether they will be granted a key question regarding the war. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, 'Police' corrected from a high of 87.5c to stabilize around 55c, as the market confirmed that while domestic protests exist, the parliamentary debate's center of gravity has partially shifted back to foreign affairs (Iran) and political rivals (Reform).

There is some divergence. While the market correctly prices 'Iran' highly, the pricing for 'Trump' (30c) seems too low. Given that an Iran crisis invariably involves US foreign policy, and Starmer is often questioned about his relationship with the US administration (if Trump is relevant context) or attacked by Tories/Reform for diplomatic weakness, the probability of 'Trump' being mentioned is likely higher than the market's current 30%. Additionally, 'Tory' at only 54c seems conservative for the most common term used to attack the opposition in PMQs.