Due to a cold front passing through, the highest temperature on April 1 will occur exactly at midnig...

March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '14°C or higher' plummeted from 54c to 12c. The reason is updated short-range weather models indicating a faster progression of the cold front, making it unlikely for the midnight temperature on April 1 to hold at or above 14°C. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the prices of '11°C' and '10°C' steadily increased as forecasts further confirmed the high probability of the midnight temperature falling within this range.

With less than two days remaining until resolution, weather forecasting models have largely converge...

Betting on the specific high temperature of a particular city on a specific day is somewhat niche. Average people wouldn't think about it unless traveling or living there, though weather forecasting is a standard vertical in prediction markets.

From Mar 30, 2026 to Mar 31, 2026, the Yes price of '14°C' plunged from 31¢ to 20¢, while '16°C' surged from 14¢ to 29¢, because short-term weather models revised expected temperatures upward, shifting the most likely high back to 16°C. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 30, 2026, the Yes price of '17°C' dropped sharply from 26.5¢ to 4.5¢, as updated forecasts largely ruled out unseasonable warmth for the target date. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '16°C' surged from 16¢ to 29¢, because the latest meteorological models converged on a high temperature of around 16°C. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '20°C or higher' plunged from 25.5¢ to 15.5¢, as updated weather forecasts closer to the target date reduced the probability of an unseasonably warm peak.

As April 2 approaches, short-term weather forecast models become significantly more accurate and sta...

While daily weather forecasting is ubiquitous, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city within narrow 1-degree Celsius intervals is a niche and somewhat novelty-driven prediction market activity.

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '6°C or higher' option surged from 25.5c to 61.5c, while the '3°C' option plummeted from 33c to 4.5c, alongside drops in '4°C' and '5°C'. This was driven by short-term weather models confirming a significant warming trend as the resolution date approaches. March 29, 2026, the price of the 3°C option surged from 17.5c to 33c before pulling back, driven by severe volatility in market expectations following earlier updates to short-term weather forecast models.

Based on the latest weather forecasts and meteorological models (such as ECMWF and GFS), the maximum...

Predicting the exact highest temperature on a specific day in Istanbul is quite obscure for the general public. Typically, only dedicated weather enthusiasts or prediction market participants would actively research this specific question.

From March 29, 2026, to March 30, 2026, the price of the 17°C option surged from 7.5c to 32.5c, and the 16°C option climbed from 17.5c to 32c, as new weather models indicated potential afternoon clearing leading to higher expected peak temperatures. On March 29, 2026, the 15°C option jumped from 12c to 27.5c due to upward revisions of earlier, cooler forecasts.