Predicting the exact high temperature in a specific city on a given day is a standard weather prediction market, but for the general public not living there or trading weather derivatives, it is a rather niche and uncommon topic.

The implied probabilities for 10°C and 11°C on Polymarket are relatively high (around 33.5% each). However, the latest meteorological forecasts predict a high of only around 8°C for Warsaw on April 29. This divergence indicates that the prediction market has not yet priced in the latest weather forecast updates, or that bettors expect meteorological models to revise the temperatures upwards closer to the date. There is a significant pricing discrepancy currently.

The market has high resolution risk due to strictly detailed typographical definitions of 'headlines', 'sub-headlines', and 'banner headlines' (e.g., must be separated by a black line/byline, pull quotes excluded). Furthermore, the rules regarding compound words and plural/possessive forms are complex, making edge cases in newspaper layouts highly prone to disputes.

Betting on the exact vocabulary of a specific newspaper's front page over a week is an exotic and novelty market. While it reflects current events, it is heavily dependent on the arbitrary editorial and layout choices of the NYT editors, which is not something people normally think about.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, prices for multiple options including Donald / Trump, Russia, and Israel surged by more than 10 cents (Trump soared from 57c to 96c, Russia from 42c to 88c). This was primarily driven by initial price discovery mechanisms, widespread price corrections due to early low liquidity, and rapidly heightening expectations for specific geopolitical and political news coverage. Previous record: No price movements exceeding 10 cents have been recorded in the past 3 days prior to this surge.

While weather prediction markets have a specific audience, predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a single day is too hyper-specific for the general public, making it a niche and somewhat novel topic.

The rules exclude standard replies but may include them if recorded on the main feed by the tracker. Deleted posts count only if they survive for ~5 minutes. The market relies heavily on a specific Polymarket tracker for resolution, which may cause discrepancies with manual counting, posing a moderate risk.

Betting on the exact number of tweets posted by the official White House account in a specific week is a highly niche and trivial statistic. Ordinary people would rarely consider or care about this outside of prediction market enthusiasts.

April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of the 160-179 option surged from 25.5c to 74.5c, while the 140-159 option plummeted from 83.5c to 27.5c. This occurred because a late surge in posts by the White House account just before expiration made it highly likely for the total to land in the 160-179 range, causing a reversal in market expectations. April 27, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option surged from 52c to 83.5c, while the 160-179 option dropped from 62c to 38.5c. This occurred because, with less than 1 day to expiration, the accumulated post data strongly points to the 140-159 range, significantly reducing the likelihood of exceeding 160. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option surged from 13c to 43c, the 160-179 option dropped from 64.5c to 46c, and the 180-199 option dropped from 21.5c to 3.4c. This was due to a slowdown in recent posting frequency as the expiration date approached, causing the market to downgrade expectations for extremely high post volumes and capital to flow back into the 140-159 range. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 65.5c to 13c, the 160-179 option surged from 19.5c to 58c, and the 180-199 option surged from 7.5c to 26c. This was due to unusually high posting activity from the White House account over the weekend, breaking previous low-frequency expectations. The market drastically upward-revised the forecasted total, leading capital to rapidly exit the 140-159 range and flood into the higher 160-199 ranges. April 22, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of the 160-179 option steadily dropped from 33c to 14c. The reason is that as the weekend approached and early data was tracked, the daily average post count was insufficient to support a total above 160, causing the market to price out this higher range. April 22, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option surged from 28.5c to 65.5c. The reason is that as the tracking period crossed the halfway mark, accumulated posting data significantly increased the certainty of the final count landing in this range. April 21, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option steadily dropped from 23.5c to 4.6c, as the daily average post count exceeded the upper limit required for this lower-frequency bracket, prompting the market to price it out. April 21, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option plummeted from 40.5c to 7.5c, and the 120-139 option dropped from 38.5c to 13c. The reason is that as the week's schedule progressed, the White House account's posting frequency stabilized, allowing the market to confidently narrow its expectations to the 140-179 range, selling off the tail probabilities on both sides. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 33.5c to 20c, as expectations for extremely high-frequency posting cooled down, with capital flowing back into the 140-199 high-frequency ranges. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option crashed from 31c to 8.25c, accompanied by a noticeable drop in the 120-139 option. This was driven by a significant recent increase in the White House account's activity, causing the market to sharply upward-revise the expected total post count and sell off shares in the lower-frequency brackets.