While Metcheck and AccuWeather predict higher temperatures (30°C-31°C), the resolution source Wunder...

This is a typical weather prediction market. While not as universally common as 'will it rain tomorrow', it is not unfamiliar to those interested in regional weather derivatives or climate. It is more niche than mainstream political/financial forecasting but belongs to a mature category.

March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of '32°C or higher' collapsed from 50c to 9.5c, as meteorological models revised early heat warnings closer to the date, ruling out extreme heat scenarios. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '30°C' surged from 17.5c to 31.5c (later settling at 28.5c), driven by some weather sources (like AccuWeather) increasing their temperature forecasts, causing capital to rotate from extreme outliers into the moderately hot range.

Market pricing favors 30°C (28.5c), aligning with AccuWeather and Metcheck forecasts (30-31°C). However, the resolution source's own model (Wunderground/IBM) predicts 29°C (84°F). The market is ignoring the resolution source's specific forecast, resulting in an undervaluation of 29°C and an overvaluation of 30°C.

Recent weather forecasts indicate that Chicago will experience colder air on Friday, March 27, with ...

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '40-41°F' dropped from 29.5c to 18.5c and rebounded to 20.5c due to fluctuations in forecast models regarding the exact timing and intensity of the cold air. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '44-45°F' plunged from 25c to 3.5c before recovering to 13.65c, reflecting shifting expectations regarding the cold front's arrival and the residual impact of a Thursday midnight high. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '52°F or higher' plummeted from 18c to 2.05c as weather models confirmed that Friday will be under the control of a cold air mass all day, eliminating the possibility of extreme highs.

Synthesizing major weather sources, the latest forecast from Google/Wunderground (the resolution sou...

March 22, 2026, 10:15 - 12:25, prices for '71°F or below' and '90°F or higher' spiked momentarily to 50c before crashing back to under 1c. Reason: Likely a momentary liquidity void or fat-finger trade error, as prices reverted immediately.

The market prices 82-83°F as the clear favorite (35.5c), aligning with AccuWeather's 83°F forecast. However, the resolution source provider (Wunderground/IBM) currently forecasts 81°F, creating a divergence where the market is ignoring the specific data source used for settlement, leaving 80-81°F statistically undervalued.

According to the latest forecasts from NWS and AccuWeather, the weather setup for NYC on March 26 ha...

From March 22, 2026 to March 23, 2026, the price of '66°F or higher' surged from 12c to 40c, while '56-57°F' plummeted from 27c to 3c. The reason is that weather models (such as GFS/ECMWF) updated the timing of the cold front, confirming that March 26 will be in the pre-frontal warm sector with warming southwest winds, causing the high-temperature forecast to be revised sharply upward from the 50s to the 60s.

Significant divergence exists. Some lagging weather aggregator sites (e.g., Weather25, WeatherShogun) still show a high of 55°F-57°F for March 26, which is completely out of sync with the latest high-resolution models and Polymarket pricing (implying 65°F+). The market is pricing based on the latest aviation weather data (NWS/AccuWeather updates), while generic weather apps used by the public may not yet reflect this 'warm sector' shift.

Synthesizing the latest meteorological data, Wunderground (the resolution source) shows a warming tr...

March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of the 24°C option crashed from 17c to 6.5c. The reason is that as the date approached, meteorological forecasts converged tightly around the 21-22°C range, making a high of 24°C (~75°F) significantly less likely.