2026-05-12 07:48 to 2026-05-12 09:58, the price of the 26°C option surged from 10.5c to 49.5c, while the 25°C option retreated from its high of 43.5c to 32.5c. This was driven by the latest meteorological updates adjusting the expected overnight minimum temperature slightly upward as the resolution date approaches, causing market funds to rapidly consolidate on 26°C.

May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The Yes price for 13°C surged from 23c to a peak of 57.5c (currently around 40.5c), and 12°C climbed from 8.7c to 22c. Meanwhile, 15°C plunged from 27c to a low of 4.5c, and 14°C dropped from 38.5c to 22.5c. This significant shift was driven by a downward revision in the weather forecast for May 13, which adjusted the expected high from the 15-16°C range down to around 13°C (56°F), significantly boosting the likelihood of the lower temperature options.

The title asks for the lowest temperature in 'Seoul', but the resolution rules strictly specify the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station'. Incheon airport is located on a coastal island and its temperature often differs significantly from central Seoul. This geographical discrepancy is a notable rule trap.

Asking for the exact lowest daily temperature of a specific city is a relatively niche topic. Aside from weather enthusiasts or locals, few people actively predict and trade this, although weather markets do have a standard presence in prediction markets.

May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The price of the 11°C option dropped from 21.5c to 6c, the 14°C option dropped from 24.05c to 8.45c, and the 12°C option rose from 19c to 32c. This was due to weather forecast models converging as the date approached, confirming the lowest temperature would likely land in the 12-13°C range, thereby decreasing the probabilities of the edge ranges and increasing the core ranges.

May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of 15°C plummeted from 25c to 4.5c, before rebounding to 15.5c, driven by short-term adjustments in weather models that temporarily shifted the minimum temperature expectation to a higher range before partially correcting.

May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the 19°C option surged from around 30c to a peak of 48c, as updated meteorological data strongly favored this range for the overnight low. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the 21°C option plummeted from 28.4c to under 1c, the 17°C option dropped from 22c to 8.5c, and the 20°C option declined from 27c to 15.5c. This indicates that as the target date approaches, the market is pricing out tail-end risks and rapidly converging on the 18°C-19°C consensus.