While daily weather forecasting is a common routine, betting on the exact daily high temperature range of a specific city on a specific day is quite niche. It primarily appeals to specific prediction market participants or meteorology enthusiasts rather than the general public.

April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The price of 26°C surged from 36c to 98c, while the price of 25°C plummeted from 46c to near 0c. This occurred because it is late afternoon on April 25 in Wuhan local time, and the actual daily high temperature has been recorded at 26°C, eliminating forecast uncertainty.

Predicting the exact highest temperature in a specific city on a given day is a highly niche novelty market. Outside of prediction market participants and specific weather enthusiasts, the general public rarely considers or bets on day-to-day weather outcomes with single-digit precision.

April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The price of 31°C surged from 29c to 88c, while 30°C and 29°C plummeted to near zero. This was driven by the actual daytime temperatures coming in significantly warmer than early forecasts, reaching approximately 31°C. April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The price of 32°C temporarily spiked from 7c up to 33c (before settling at 12c) as intraday temperature trends hinted at the possibility of touching the 32°C mark.

From 01:18 to 08:53 on April 25, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 15.5c to 99.75c, while the 22°C and 23°C options plummeted to near zero. This was caused by the progression of the day in Taipei time (now late afternoon), solidifying the actual daily high temperature data at 21°C. Over the past 3 days, options for 24°C and 25°C or higher also gradually dropped by more than 10c as weather forecasts adjusted downwards.

While weather forecasting is a daily routine, betting on the precise maximum temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche market. It appeals mainly to weather enthusiasts and short-term data arbitrageurs, giving it moderate novelty.

From April 24, 2026 to April 25, 2026, the price of 18°C climbed from 41.5c to 68c, while 17°C dropped from 38.5c to 22c. This was due to updated forecasts increasingly pointing towards a high of 18°C (64°F). From April 24, 2026 to April 25, 2026, the price of 19°C fell from a high of 25.5c to 7.5c, as the expected high temperature range narrowed down to 17-18°C, drastically reducing the probability of reaching 19°C.

April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 42c to 61c, and the 24°C option rose from 16.5c to 38.5c, while the 22°C option plummeted from 28.5c to 5.5c. The reason is that as the settlement time approaches, weather forecasts have further locked the day's high at around 23°C, ruling out lower temperatures. April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 24°C option increased from 9.5c to 35.5c, and the 22°C option dropped from 40.5c to 10c, because short-to-medium-term forecast models raised their expectations for Madrid's temperatures during this period.