With less than 1 day remaining until the resolution date (April 1), weather forecasting models provi...

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '19°C or higher' surged from 26.5c to 42.5c, and '18°C' surged from 21.5c to a peak of 47c (before settling at 38c). Concurrently, '17°C' and '16°C' dropped significantly from 32.5c and 22c respectively. The reason is that as April 1 approaches, the latest weather forecasts have further confirmed a strong warming trend, locking the likely highest temperature at 18°C or above. March 29, 2026 20:05 - 22:15, the price of '18°C' surged from 21.5c to 37c, and '17°C' surged from 20c to 32.5c, as weather forecasts became more definitive locking the expected temperature in a higher range. March 29, 2026 20:05 - 22:15, the price of '10°C' crashed from 15.5c to 0.6c, and '12°C' dropped from 17c to 7.2c, as the latest forecasts ruled out the possibility of such low temperatures.

As the resolution date approaches (March 31), weather forecasts have highly converged. The highest t...

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a specific future date is a niche topic in prediction markets. Unless one is a weather enthusiast or local resident, ordinary people rarely ponder such micro-level questions, though it is not as bizarre as theological or fantasy-based markets.

March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '24°C' dropped from 29.5c to 14.5c before rebounding to 31.5c, and '22°C' dropped from 33.5c to 19c. This was caused by intraday updates from short-term weather models (like GFS/ECMWF) shifting the expected peak temperature slightly between 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C, leading to sharp probability transfers among the top options. March 29, 2026, the price of '18°C or below' plummeted from 17c to 3c, and '20°C' dropped from 17c to 6.5c. This was driven by updated and more accurate short-term weather forecasts confidently predicting highs above 22°C for April 1, eliminating the likelihood of unseasonably cold temperatures.

According to the latest forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and major meteorological sources li...

Between 2026-03-29 20:15 and 2026-03-29 22:25, the price of the 26°C option plummeted from 29.5c to 17c. This was driven by updated meteorological forecasts shifting the expected temperature distribution, leading to capital reallocation across options. Between 2026-03-29 20:15 and 2026-03-29 22:25, the price of the 27°C option dropped from 44c to 36.5c, indicating reduced market confidence in reaching this temperature as the target date approaches.

There is a noticeable divergence. Mainstream weather forecasts generally point to a daily high of 24°C to 26°C, yet the prediction market still assigns the highest probability (36.5%) to 27°C. This suggests that traders might be hedging against extreme weather risks or betting on a stronger recent warming trend in Hong Kong, contrasting with the more conservative official predictions.

With only two days until resolution, weather forecasting models have reached a strong consensus indi...

While weather derivatives exist in professional finance, predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city on a specific day is somewhat niche and novel for average prediction market participants.

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The price of '48°F or higher' continued to surge from 54c to 97c, while mid-to-low temperature options (e.g., 40-43°F) collapsed to near zero. This was driven by weather models fully confirming a strong warm advection that eliminates the possibility of sustained cold. March 29, 2026: The price of '48°F or higher' surged from 26c to 54c, driven by speculative buying as some outlier weather models suggested potential warm advection if a weather front accelerates eastward.

Based on the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 1, 2026, is expect...

March 30, 2026 01:40-04:55, the price of '12°C or higher' surged from 65c to 79.5c as weather forecasts further confirmed a warming trend for the day, strengthening market expectations for higher temperatures. March 29, 2026 19:10-20:15, the price of '12°C or higher' surged from 27.5c to 39c due to recent weather forecasts adjusting the expected maximum temperature upwards. March 29, 2026 19:10-20:15, the price of '7°C' dropped from 16c to 10c as the rising forecast temperatures significantly reduced the likelihood of lower temperature outcomes.