Predicting the exact highest temperature in a specific city on a given day is a highly niche novelty market. Outside of prediction market participants and specific weather enthusiasts, the general public rarely considers or bets on day-to-day weather outcomes with single-digit precision.

April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The price of 31°C surged from 29c to 88c, while 30°C and 29°C plummeted to near zero. This was driven by the actual daytime temperatures coming in significantly warmer than early forecasts, reaching approximately 31°C. April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The price of 32°C temporarily spiked from 7c up to 33c (before settling at 12c) as intraday temperature trends hinted at the possibility of touching the 32°C mark.

April 25, 2026, 01:18 - April 25, 2026, 04:33: The 'yes' price for the 27°C option surged from 25c to 48c. This is because, with real-time updates of the day's temperature data, the certainty of the high reaching 27°C significantly increased. April 24, 2026, 16:38 - April 24, 2026, 20:58: The 'yes' price for the 29°C option rose from 15c to 22.5c, before dropping back to single digits on April 25. This was due to a temporary warming fluctuation in short-term weather models, which was later corrected by more accurate real-time data. April 23, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The overall market prices shifted from dispersed to concentrated, with the 27°C and 28°C options absorbing most of the probability, reflecting the convergence characteristic of weather forecasts as the expiration date approaches.

From 01:18 to 08:53 on April 25, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 15.5c to 99.75c, while the 22°C and 23°C options plummeted to near zero. This was caused by the progression of the day in Taipei time (now late afternoon), solidifying the actual daily high temperature data at 21°C. Over the past 3 days, options for 24°C and 25°C or higher also gradually dropped by more than 10c as weather forecasts adjusted downwards.

April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 42c to 61c, and the 24°C option rose from 16.5c to 38.5c, while the 22°C option plummeted from 28.5c to 5.5c. The reason is that as the settlement time approaches, weather forecasts have further locked the day's high at around 23°C, ruling out lower temperatures. April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 24°C option increased from 9.5c to 35.5c, and the 22°C option dropped from 40.5c to 10c, because short-to-medium-term forecast models raised their expectations for Madrid's temperatures during this period.

While weather forecasting is a daily routine, betting on the precise maximum temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche market. It appeals mainly to weather enthusiasts and short-term data arbitrageurs, giving it moderate novelty.

From April 24, 2026 to April 25, 2026, the price of 18°C climbed from 41.5c to 68c, while 17°C dropped from 38.5c to 22c. This was due to updated forecasts increasingly pointing towards a high of 18°C (64°F). From April 24, 2026 to April 25, 2026, the price of 19°C fell from a high of 25.5c to 7.5c, as the expected high temperature range narrowed down to 17-18°C, drastically reducing the probability of reaching 19°C.