The '27°C or higher' option is currently trading at 25.5¢, implying a greater than 1-in-4 chance of unseasonably high temperatures. However, mainstream weather forecasts (such as AccuWeather and other meteorological services) predict highs mostly in the 21°C to 24°C range for April 6, with some indicating even lower temperatures due to potential cloud cover and rain. The market is significantly overpricing the likelihood of extreme heat, creating a noticeable divergence.

Predicting the daily maximum temperature of a specific city is a somewhat niche topic in prediction markets. While it resembles weather derivatives in traditional finance, it remains relatively novel and niche for the general public.

From April 3, 2026 01:10 to April 3, 2026 05:30, the price of '27°C' surged from 39.5c to 90c, as live temperature observations for the day became available, essentially locking the highest temperature in the 27°C range. From April 3, 2026 03:20 to April 3, 2026 05:30, the price of '28°C' plummeted from 42.5c to 7c, because as the afternoon progressed, the probability of the temperature climbing further to 28°C significantly decreased. From April 2, 2026 05:40 to April 3, 2026 05:30, the price of '26°C' crashed from 41.5c down to 0.55c, as actual temperatures breached 26.9°C, completely ruling out this option. From March 30, 2026 to March 31, 2026, the price of '26°C' fell sharply from a high of 54.5c to 19.5c, as updated forecasts shifted the likely peak temperature slightly higher towards 27°C and above. From March 30, 2026 to March 31, 2026, the price of '27°C' initially dropped from 41c to 15c, then strongly rebounded to 34.5c on the 31st, indicating that forecast models wavered between 26°C and 27°C over these two days. From March 29, 2026 to March 30, 2026, the price of '19°C or below' plummeted from 25c to 12.45c and then rebounded to 25.15c, likely due to market sentiment fluctuations caused by short-term weather forecast updates. From March 29, 2026 to March 30, 2026, the price of '20°C' surged from 1.2c to 25.05c. The reason might be that forecast models indicated a rare probability of a temperature drop, attracting defensive funds. From March 29, 2026 to March 30, 2026, the price of '25°C' fell from 35c to 18.5c (and later down to 10.5c), indicating that the market believes the probability of hitting this relatively lower temperature has continually decreased.

While weather forecasting is common in daily life, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city down to a single degree is somewhat niche in prediction markets, giving it a moderate novelty score.

March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the '20°C' option plummeted from 32.5c to 9.5c, as updated forecasts trended toward warmer temperature ranges (21°C and above). March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the '23°C or higher' option dropped from 41c to 28.5c, as meteorological models ruled out the possibility of extreme anomalous high temperatures. March 29, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the '21°C' option surged from 18c to 37.5c, as mainstream weather models and forecasts consistently point to a high temperature of around 21°C for the day.

April 2 - April 3, 2026: The price of '66-67°F' surged from 13c to 27c, as the latest meteorological data on the eve of the target date slightly upward-adjusted the expected daytime high. April 2 - April 3, 2026: '62-63°F' and '64-65°F' experienced severe volatility. '62-63°F' surged from 24.5c to 34.5c before pulling back to 22.5c. This was caused by an intraday update in weather forecasting models briefly upgrading the high temperature projection before restabilizing. April 1 - April 2, 2026: The prices of '62-63°F' and '60-61°F' surged from 18.5c and 9.5c to highs of 34.5c and 23.5c respectively, while '68-69°F' and higher options plummeted. This was driven by near-term radar showing heavier cloud cover, limiting daytime heating and prompting the market to rule out sudden temperature spikes. March 31 - April 1, 2026: The price of '59°F or below' strongly rebounded from 5c to 21.5c, as updated weather models closer to settlement hinted that Friday's highs might not break 60°F due to rain and cloud cover. March 30 - March 31, 2026: The price of '59°F or below' plunged from 33.5c to under 14c, while '60-61°F' and '62-63°F' rose. This was caused by interim forecasts locking the expected high just above 60°F, eliminating extreme cold expectations at that time. March 29 - March 30, 2026: Extreme high-temperature options like '78°F or higher' plummeted, as earlier forecast models showing anomalous warming scenarios were invalidated, prompting a swift market correction.

Between March 31, 2026, and April 2, 2026, the price of '21°C or below' fell from 17.5c to 6.5c (from a historical high of 40.5c), as cold front expectations completely faded and forecasts were revised warmer. Between March 31, 2026, and April 2, 2026, the price of '23°C' quickly rebounded from 10.5c to 24.5c before settling at 14.5c, indicating intensified trader speculation on the exact temperature as the date nears. Between March 31, 2026, and April 2, 2026, the price of '24°C' steadily climbed from 16c to 26.5c, as updated models showed a clear warming trend, making it the market favorite.