Betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is somewhat niche and novelty-oriented for the mainstream, but it is a relatively common and fun daily topic within prediction markets.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of '20°C' surged from 20.5c to 99.5c, while '21°C or higher' plummeted from 70.5c to 0.35c, as the actual high temperature for April 7 in Wellington has practically locked in at 20°C. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of '21°C or higher' plummeted from 77.5c to 35c, while '20°C' surged from 18.5c to 50c, because real-time midday temperature observations in Wellington on April 7 indicated slower heating than previously expected. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of '21°C or higher' surged further from 58.5c to 79c, as MetService's latest official forecast directly projected a high of 21°C. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of '21°C or higher' surged from 25.5c to 58.5c, driven by market expectations of localized heating spikes from a subtropical warm front and earlier cloud dissipation. April 3, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the prices of '18°C' and '19°C' plummeted from 18c and 27c to roughly 1.5c and 4.5c, respectively, due to updated official forecasts and capital rotating aggressively into the higher temperature brackets.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of the 19°C option soared from 24c to 98.6c, because as Tokyo local time entered the late afternoon of the resolution day, the actual daily high temperature data was largely published and locked into the 19°C range, eliminating remaining predictive uncertainty. April 6, 2026, the price of the 19°C option surged from 21.5c to 83c. This was driven by the release of precise near-term weather forecasts confirming that heavy cloud cover and precipitation on April 7 would firmly lock the maximum temperature around 19°C or lower, eliminating the uncertainty of warmer breakthroughs. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the 20°C option briefly dropped from 8.5c to 3.8c before rebounding to 14.3c, reflecting short-term market friction and micro-adjustments ahead of the final forecasts. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, expectations for lower temperature brackets strengthened as short-term weather forecasts validated an increased probability of rain in Tokyo on April 7, keeping the expected high temperature heavily suppressed.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of 29°C surged from 36.5c to 88.5c, while 30°C plummeted from 52c to 9.5c. The reason is that Shenzhen's local time has passed the afternoon peak temperature hours, and real-time observation data indicates the high temperature stayed at 29°C, making the chance of hitting 30°C extremely slim. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 29°C surged from 35c to 51c, while the price of 28°C plummeted from 32.5c to 12.5c. The reason is that the latest weather forecasts closer to the resolution date further confirmed the warming trend, making 29°C the most certain expectation for the high temperature. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, multiple options experienced drastic fluctuations. The price of 29°C surged from 16.5c to 32c, and 28°C rose from 18c to 29c. Meanwhile, 25°C plummeted from 18.5c to 3.4c, and 31°C dropped from 25c to 9.5c. The reason is that weather forecasting models updated as the date approached, stabilizing the expected high temperature in the 28-29°C range and eliminating earlier anomalous predictions of extreme highs or lows.

April 3, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 17°C surged from 21c to 37c, 18°C rose from 19.5c to 30.5c, and 15°C plummeted from 18c to 5c. This occurred because, as the settlement date approaches, weather forecast models further converged, pinpointing the expected highest temperature in the 17°C to 18°C range and ruling out lower temperatures. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of 19°C plummeted from 17.5c to 6.5c, and 20°C dropped from 13c to 2.5c, because weather forecast models have converged as the settlement date approaches, ruling out the likelihood of unusually high temperatures.