As March 29 (Palm Sunday) approaches, early-week actual TSA throughput data has prompted the market ...

There is significant ambiguity in the rules. The phrase 'Reported on March 29' literally implies the data released that day (which would be March 28th's numbers), yet subsequent clauses mention 'data for the listed date,' implying the intent is the passenger count *for* March 29th. This sloppy wording creates a dispute risk, especially if the figures for the 28th and 29th fall into different brackets.

This event sits at a critical intersection of a simulated 'Government Shutdown' and peak 'Spring Break' travel. With TSA agents missing paychecks on Friday, March 27, the risk of a 'Blue Flu' sick-out on Palm Sunday (March 29) is high. A collapse in throughput would negatively impact airline sentiment (JETS ETF), while a record number despite the chaos would confirm extreme underlying travel demand.

March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the Yes price for '<2.6M' plummeted from 45.5c to 11c, and '2.8M-3.0M' dropped from 50.5c to 24.5c. Conversely, '2.6M-2.8M' surged from 45c to a peak of 72.5c (currently at 65.5c). The reason is that as actual TSA throughput data for dates closer to the target became available, the market narrowed its volume estimates, pricing out extreme high/low scenarios and consolidating around the historical average (near 2.75M).

Based on the latest market trends, the 65-89 bracket has seen a rapid price increase as settlement a...

The rules rely on a specific third-party tracker 'xtracker.polymarket.com' and have nuanced definitions for 'Replies' (generally excluded unless they appear on the main feed). While the rules clarify these nuances, Musk's posting habits are unpredictable, and X platform algorithm changes could affect which replies appear on the main feed, creating a risk where the tracker count diverges from user intuition.

This is a classic 'Novelty' market. Predicting the exact number of tweets from a celebrity is not a conventional financial or political question; it is an entertainment-based speculation on the persona and recent activity levels of the individual.

March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of the '65-89' option surged from 32.5c to 48.5c, as Musk's actual tweet frequency became clearer over time, making this range the most likely final landing spot. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of the '40-64' option plunged from 30.5c to 15.5c, as the tweet growth rate exceeded expectations, significantly reducing the likelihood of this lower-frequency bracket. March 26, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the '90-114' option plunged from 29.5c to 19c, due to the tweet growth rate falling short of expectations, significantly reducing the likelihood of higher-frequency brackets.

Driven by intense fan purchasing and streaming, BTS's new single 'SWIM' has seen its price surge to ...

Mar 25, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026: The price of 'SWIM - BTS' continuously surged from 32c to 88c, driven by overwhelming data from highly organized fan campaigns following the release of their new single, virtually solidifying market expectations for a #1 debut. Mar 24, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026: The price of 'Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley' crashed from 91c to 8c as BTS's strong entry shattered expectations of its continued reign, leading to rapid capital outflow. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 24, 2026: Multiple non-contender options, including 'Man I Need', 'I Just Might', and 'Ordinary', collectively collapsed from ~49c to 1-2c. This was a market correction of a severely inefficient state where total probabilities exceeded 300%.

This market resolves based on mentions of specific terms during the CS2 Bo5 Grand Final broadcast. D...

The major risk lies in the inclusion of 'in-game audio'. In CS matches, automated system voice lines frequently announce 'Bomb has been planted' or 'Throwing Smoke', making options like 'Bomb' or 'Smoke' significantly more likely to hit high counts compared to commentary-only markets. Users may underestimate this. Additionally, high-frequency counts like '20+' or '50+' lack an official public transcript, creating a high potential for verification disputes in borderline cases (e.g., 49 vs 50 counts).

This is a highly vertical esports novelty market. It focuses on the frequency of specific words in a broadcast rather than match outcomes. It requires deep knowledge of CS terminology (e.g., Banana, Donk, IGL), and the result is heavily influenced by caster style and random game progression, making it distinct from standard financial or sports predictions.

2026-03-26 20:15:14 - 2026-03-27 13:35:13, the Yes price of 'Match Point' remained stable around 70.5c but had previously climbed from 57c, reflecting increased market expectations of a closely contested Grand Final with clear match point scenarios. 2026-03-25 18:15:13 - 2026-03-26 20:15:14, the Yes price of 'IGL' rebounded from 56c to 76c, indicating traders reassessed the inevitability of desk and casters frequently mentioning the In-Game Leader role. 2026-03-26 02:55:13 - 2026-03-26 20:15:14, the Yes price of 'Bomb 20+ times' climbed steadily from 87.5c to 92.5c, eventually settling at 95.5c, showing near consensus that this very low threshold will easily be met. 2026-03-24 16:20:13 - 2026-03-25 13:55:13, the Yes price of 'Retake 5+ times' plunged from 87.5c to 69c, before slightly recovering, likely due to a market reassessment of its specific mention count during the broadcast. 2026-03-24 12:00:13 - 2026-03-25 13:55:13, the Yes price of 'Donk' experienced severe volatility, rising from 45.5c to 68c and falling back to 63c, reflecting changing expectations regarding the frequency of a specific player's mention in the broadcast. 2026-03-24 03:20:14 - 2026-03-25 13:55:13, the Yes price of 'Ace' surged from 57c to a peak of 86.5c before plunging to 62c, showing extremely high speculative volatility. 2026-03-24 16:20:13 - 2026-03-25 13:55:13, the Yes price of 'Bomb 50+ times' crashed from 87c to 71.5c, indicating traders began questioning whether the extremely high threshold of 50+ mentions could be met.