How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30?
Tech|$123.6k Vol|
time40 days 3 hrs

How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30? - AI Found +32.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.15 04:01
Top Undervalued
+32.5¢
80%(Yes)
+6.5¢
90%(Yes)
+2¢
85%(Yes)

How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30? AI analysis: • +32.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent Kaito data indicates a noticeable spike in Polymarket's mindshare, significantly boosting mar...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Elon Musk # tweets May 19 - May 26, 2026?
Culture|$177.6k Vol|
time5 days 19 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets May 19 - May 26, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+2¢
240-259(No)
+1.9¢
140-159(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices follow a normal distribution centered around the 180-299 range. Elon Musk's ac...
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Rule Risk
The rules explicitly exclude standard replies (unless on the main feed) and designate a specific third-party tracker for resolution. Traders might easily miscount if they only estimate from his X profile without filtering or checking the tracker.
Exotics
This is a highly entertainment-driven and novelty market. Mainstream individuals rarely attempt to seriously predict the exact number of posts a public figure makes in a specific week.
AI Analysis
English Premier League - Most Assists
Soccer|$27.5k Vol|
time4 days 3 hrs

English Premier League - Most Assists

Top Undervalued
+0.9¢
Bruno Fernandes(No)
+0.1¢
Granit Xhaka(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Bruno Fernandes' yes price has stabilized at a very high level (>99c). With less than 5 days remaini...
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AI Analysis
Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?
football|$28.6k Vol|
time102 days 3 hrs

Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?

Top Undervalued
+52¢
Denver Broncos(No)
+49.5¢
Cleveland Browns(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Yes prices for all teams are irrationally inflated to 45-51 cents, leading to a total implied pr...
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Divergence
The market prices imply a total probability of over 1500%, which is mathematically impossible and completely contradicts any expert prediction or common sense. Mainstream consensus is that he will only go to one team, most likely a contender like the 49ers, rather than every team having a ~50% chance of signing him.
AI Analysis
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
Politics|$323.3k Vol|
time166 days 3 hrs

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Top Undervalued
+2.4¢
Shutdown & Democratic Party(Yes)
+0.6¢
Shutdown & Republican Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Since the government shutdown in January 2026 was confirmed, this market has effectively become a di...
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Rule Risk
The market combines two independent conditions with a significant time gap. The major risk is that the 'Shutdown' deadline (Jan 31, 2026) occurs long before the 'House Election' (Nov 2026). If no shutdown occurs by Jan 31, both 'Shutdown & ...' options technically fail early, potentially leaving the market in a zombie state or resolving to 'No' well before the election. Furthermore, given the current simulated date is Feb 2026, the first condition's outcome might already be determined, creating confusion around the timeline.
Exotics
This is a combinatorial market (conditional) binding a macro policy risk ('Government Shutdown') with a political outcome ('Midterm Elections'). While both separate events are standard political topics, combining them creates a specific scenario bet (implying correlation between shutdown and election results), making it slightly more complex and artificial than single events.
AI Analysis
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
Tech|$327.0k Vol|
time10 days 3 hrs

Gemini 3.2 released on...?

Top Undervalued
+0.6¢
May 20(No)
+0.6¢
May 22(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market continues to strongly price in a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, with the option's price s...
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Rule Risk
The rules strictly define what qualifies as 'Gemini 3.2', explicitly excluding modality-specific models (video, image, etc.) or pure GA promotions. The risk lies in Google potentially releasing a model with an unexpected naming convention, which might seem to qualify common-sensically but triggers a 'No' resolution based on the rule's fine print.
Hedging
GOOGL
The release cadence of Gemini 3.2 is directly tied to Google's competitiveness in the generative AI space. An on-time or early release could have a moderate positive impact on GOOGL stock (roughly a 3-5% move) as it demonstrates technological progress, whereas delays could be negative. The material impact on the broader market (Nasdaq 100) would be negligible.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
80%
YesNo
49.5¢
50.5¢
82¢
18¢
+32.5¢
90%
YesNo
11.5¢
88.5¢
18¢
82¢
+6.5¢

Expand to view all 3 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The main risk lies in the specific data definition. The rules explicitly state that only 'finalized daily results' under 'Historical Data' on Kaito count. This means intra-day spikes are invalid, and traders might easily misjudge by looking at real-time dashboard metrics instead of daily closes.
Exotics
This is a highly niche, crypto-native topic focusing on a specific metric ('mindshare') of a prediction market platform on a particular AI analytics site (Kaito). The general public does not think about such derivative data, making it a classic geeky market.
Movers
May 14, 2026 - May 15, 2026, the 80% option surged from 60c to 82c, and the 85% option rose from 25c to 38.5c. This was caused by a noticeable spike in Polymarket's mindshare shown on Kaito, prompting the market to significantly raise expectations of hitting these targets. May 4, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the 80% option dropped from 66.5c to 56c and then rebounded to 70c. This was caused by short-term daily fluctuations in Kaito's mindshare metrics, followed by a recovery in expectations due to renewed market activity. April 6, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 85% option plunged from 46c to 34c. This drop is likely due to the lack of breakthrough trending events as time progresses, leading to a cooling of market optimism regarding reaching extremely high market share.

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