Explain the resolution criteria for this 5.5+ magnitude earthquake market in the simplest terms (ELI5), specifically focusing on the USGS data source requirements and the 24-hour delay rule for data revisions.

AI-powered analysis for: Explain the resolution criteria for this 5.5+ magnitude earthquake market in the simplest terms (ELI5), specifically focusing on the USGS data source requirements and the 24-hour delay rule for data revisions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Is the weekly count of 5.5+ magnitude earthquakes a purely random event, or are there predictable geological patterns (like recent seismic activity or aftershocks) that can help forecast the total for May 18 to May 24?

AI-powered analysis for: Is the weekly count of 5.5+ magnitude earthquakes a purely random event, or are there predictable geological patterns (like recent seismic activity or aftershocks) that can help forecast the total for May 18 to May 24?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low trading volume ($17.28) of this earthquake market, how can I set up a 'stink bid' strategy to catch sudden panic selling if a cluster of earthquakes unexpectedly occurs during the timeframe?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low trading volume ($17.28) of this earthquake market, how can I set up a 'stink bid' strategy to catch sudden panic selling if a cluster of earthquakes unexpectedly occurs during the timeframe?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 18 - May 24?

Weather|$16.2k Vol|

3 days 3 hrs

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 18 - May 24? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 7 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+1¢

>9(No)

+0.5¢

6(No)

+0.5¢

8(Yes)

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 18 - May 24? AI analysis: • +1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Historically, the world averages about 8.65 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5+ per week. With approximate...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

32¢

68¢

31¢

69¢

0¢

+1¢

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+0.5¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

Quite exotic. Although magnitude 5.5 earthquakes are relatively common globally, the general public rarely tracks or specifically predicts their exact weekly count. It is a highly niche natural disaster prediction market.

Movers

2026-05-17 - 2026-05-20, the price of the '≤3' option plummeted from 15c to approx 2c, as the occurrence of earthquakes over the elapsed time significantly reduced the probability of an extremely low final count. 2026-05-17 - 2026-05-19, the price of the '>9' option dropped from 37c to 27c, as the elapsed time without extreme frequency spikes caused the market to cool down its expectations for a highly anomalous week. 2026-05-16 - 2026-05-17, the price of the '>9' option surged from 16.5c to 37c, correcting an earlier mispricing and aligning the price with the statistical fair value derived from a Poisson distribution.