Politics|$12.2k Vol|
164 days 23 hrsHow many Republican House members not running in 2026? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
32–35
YesNo
40–43
YesNo
36–39
YesNo
28–31
YesNo
44+
YesNo
<24
YesNo
24–27
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.03 23:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As filing deadlines for key states approach in March, the market is undergoing significant repricing. Data from the past week shows a shift in capital from lower brackets (28-31) to higher brackets (36-39 and 40-43). This aligns with the 'Six-Year Itch' political phenomenon, where the incumbent party often sees higher retirement rates during the sixth year of a presidency. While 32-35 remains the most rational median, the fair value curve should be adjusted further right to reflect the strong momentum in the 36-39 bucket, accounting for members seeking Senate seats or retiring. The current market price for 36-39 (~32c) is nearing fair value, but 28-31 (24c) remains slightly overpriced given its downward trend.
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