Elections|$58.7k Vol|
165 days 5 hrsHow many Republican Senators not running in 2026? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
5
YesNo
6
YesNo
8
YesNo
7
YesNo
11
YesNo
10
YesNo
<5
YesNo
9
YesNo
12+
YesNo
AI Insights:
15 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 18, 2026, two weeks since the last report (March 4), the market structure has shifted fundamentally. The price of option '5' has collapsed from a dominant position (previously ~68c) to 6.7c, while '6' is now the clear favorite (55.5c) and '7' is rising (23.5c). This strongly implies that a 6th Republican Senator has effectively confirmed they will not seek reelection (or highly credible news has leaked) in the last two weeks, rendering '5' largely obsolete. Given that mid-to-late March approaches many state filing deadlines, the probability of surprise retirements decreases as time passes. Therefore, the result will likely settle at '6' (the current effective count) or creep up to '7' (if one late surprise occurs). Fair value should heavily favor '6' with a hedge premium on '7'.
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