Based on historical NOAA data, what is the average number and historical frequency of tornadoes in the US during May over the past decade, and do the current option odds reflect this trend?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on historical NOAA data, what is the average number and historical frequency of tornadoes in the US during May over the past decade, and do the current option odds reflect this trend?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

As May progresses, how does time decay (Theta) affect the probability of the higher tornado count brackets (e.g., 410+) if no major storm systems are forecast in the near term?

AI-powered analysis for: As May progresses, how does time decay (Theta) affect the probability of the higher tornado count brackets (e.g., 410+) if no major storm systems are forecast in the near term?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Considering the market resolves on June 8, 2026, after the NCEI data release, is the expected return of betting on this event worth the opportunity cost of locking up capital for over a month compared to risk-free DeFi yields?

AI-powered analysis for: Considering the market resolves on June 8, 2026, after the NCEI data release, is the expected return of betting on this event worth the opportunity cost of locking up capital for over a month compared to risk-free DeFi yields?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How many Tornadoes in the US in May?

Weather|$10 Vol|

36 days 4 hrs

How many Tornadoes in the US in May? - AI Found +40.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 08:24

Top Undervalued

+40.5¢

350–379(No)

+39¢

320–349(No)

+38.5¢

380–410(No)

How many Tornadoes in the US in May? AI analysis: • +40.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The historical average for US tornadoes in May is around 268. According to meteorological forecasts ...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

350–379

YesNo

43.5¢

56.5¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+40.5¢

320–349

YesNo

42¢

58¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+39¢

Expand to view all 9 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

Predicting the exact number of tornadoes in the US within a specific month is a somewhat niche weather/climate market. While not a mainstream topic of daily public interest, it is a standard and tracked metric for meteorologists, insurance professionals, and weather enthusiasts, making it moderately novel.

Divergence

The market prices imply an exceptionally high probability for extreme tail events (the sum of Yes prices for 350+ options alone exceeds 120 cents), whereas mainstream meteorological forecasts predict below-average to near-average tornado counts (around 268) for May 2026 [3, 5]. This stark divergence is the root cause of the current massive market mispricing.