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AI Insights:
03.15 10:29 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The candidate filing deadline in Idaho passed on March 13, 2026, confirming that incumbent Republica...
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Divergence
Mainstream ratings (e.g., Cook Political Report) classify ID-02 as 'Safe Republican,' implying a win probability of >99%. However, the prediction market prices it at only 90.5%, showing a ~9% probability divergence. This discrepancy is likely driven by the opportunity cost of capital (locked for 230+ days) and low liquidity, rather than genuine electoral upset risk.
