IPOs before 2027?
Business|$6.0m Vol|
time242 days 5 hrs

IPOs before 2027? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 2 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+0.6¢
Discord(No)
+0.5¢
Celonis(Yes)
+0.5¢
Glean(Yes)

IPOs before 2027? AI analysis: • +0.6¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Market expectations for top AI IPOs continue to heat up, especially with Cerebras and SpaceX priced ...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?
netflix|$11.9k Vol|
time2 days 5 hrs

What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?

Top Undervalued
+3.1¢
Apex(No)
+1.1¢
Swapped(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest daily streaming charts (e.g., FlixPatrol) and recent market trading dynamics, 'A...
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Rule Risk
The rules explicitly state the resolution is based on the 'Global Top 10 Movies (English only)' list, while the title omits this language restriction, potentially misleading traders betting on popular non-English films. Additionally, there is a timing risk where the market resolves to 'Other' if the website update is delayed by more than three days.
Movers
April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The price of 'Apex' surged from 51c to 96c, while other options like 'Swapped' plummeted (e.g., 'Swapped' fell from 25c to 3c). This was driven by daily viewership data from streaming trackers confirming that 'Apex' maintained an absolute global lead throughout the week, eliminating any competitive suspense.
AI Analysis
Farrer By-Election Winner
Politics|$174.3k Vol|
time242 days 5 hrs

Farrer By-Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
David Farley(No)
+3¢
Michelle Milthorpe(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Farrer is traditionally an ultra-safe seat for the Liberal/National Coalition. As the by-election ap...
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Rule Risk
This market carries extreme resolution risk (Risk Score 5). 1. **Missing Favorites**: Farrer is historically a safe Liberal seat, and both the Liberal and National Parties are confirmed to contest the by-election. However, the market options only list three specific candidates (Dalton, Scriven, Milthorpe), **completely omitting the Liberal and National Party candidates**, who are the likely favorites. 2. **Ambiguous Fallback**: The rules state the market resolves to 'Other' if voting *does not take place*, but fail to explicitly state that it resolves to 'Other' if an *unlisted candidate* wins. If a tradable 'Other' option is not present, a victory by the Liberal candidate would leave the market with no valid resolution, likely leading to a dispute or voided market. This is a classic 'missing field' trap.
Movers
April 22, 2026 - April 26, 2026, David Farley's price rose steadily from 47.5c to 66c, while Michelle Milthorpe's price dropped from 49.5c to 34c. The reason is that as the by-election draws closer, the Coalition's base advantage in the ultra-safe seat becomes more apparent, prompting the market to squeeze out the speculative premium on the independent candidate and return to fundamentals. April 16, 2026 - April 19, 2026, David Farley's price surged from 18.5c to 42.5c, while Raissa Butkowski's price crashed from 21c to 3.6c. The reason is that as the by-election approaches and party nominations clear up, the market recognized Farley as the core major party candidate (likely the Coalition), absorbing scattered vote expectations while competitors were sold off. April 8, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price rose from 39c to 58c. The reason is that as the by-election date approaches, market capital is further betting on her chances as the only competitive independent candidate, driving up a speculative premium. April 1, 2026 - April 4, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price rose from 35c to 46c. The reason is the formal announcement of the by-election date (May 9) and the issuing of writs, which solidified market expectations of her campaign momentum as the primary independent challenger. Concurrently, Rebecca Scriven's price wildly fluctuated from 1.8c to 17.3c and back to 8c, driven by speculative buying in a low-liquidity market following news that her Family First party would withhold preference votes from One Nation. March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price dropped from 34c to 21.5c before a minor rebound. The reason is likely a market reality check regarding an independent's actual chances in the traditional Coalition stronghold of Farrer, with liquidity shifting back towards the implied 'Coalition Win' (selling Milthorpe) logic. March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, Helen Dalton's price surged from 5.85c to 19.65c. The reason appears to be speculative rumors regarding her potential re-entry or irrational capital chasing low liquidity, which conflicted with her previous fundamental stance of 'confirmed withdrawal'. March 3, 2026 - March 5, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 56c to 16c before rebounding to 34.5c. The reason was the market oscillating between the narratives of an 'invincible Coalition stronghold' and her being the 'sole challenger consolidating the protest vote' after the by-election date was confirmed.
AI Analysis
NY-16 House Election Winner
Elections|$25.0k Vol|
time184 days 5 hrs

NY-16 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+6¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+3¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
NY-16 remains one of the safest Democratic strongholds in the nation (Cook PVI D+20). Incumbent mode...
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AI Analysis
Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel?
Sports|$38.7k Vol|
time29 days 5 hrs

Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel?

Top Undervalued
+21.8¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although a boxing match between Bob Menery and Johnny Manziel is tentatively scheduled for May 16, 2...
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Rule Risk
The rules contain a significant trap: if the fight is canceled due to the opponent (Johnny Manziel) or the promoter (Full Send Boxing), the market resolves to 'Yes' even if Bob Menery never actually enters the ring. This strongly conflicts with the literal phrasing of the title.
Exotics
This is a crossover celebrity boxing match between a podcast influencer and a former pro football player. Unless someone is a specific fan of this influencer circle or entertainment boxing, the general public would rarely consider or predict such a niche novelty event.
Movers
April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped significantly from 53.95c to 42.2c. This was driven by UFC CEO Dana White publicly expressing strong doubts over the weekend about Bob Menery's willingness to show up for the fight, revealing he placed a $10,000 'No' bet on Polymarket, which triggered massive market concerns about Menery flaking.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Discord
YesNo
65.6¢
34.4¢
65¢
35¢
+0.6¢
Celonis
YesNo
8.5¢
91.5¢
91¢
+0.5¢

Expand to view all 31 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
Apr 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, Remote price plummeted from 41.5c to 31.5c, as earlier positive compliance progress was digested by the market without substantive IPO actions, causing speculative funds to exit. Apr 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026, Anthropic price surged from 47c to 67.5c, likely driven by positive market rumors regarding enhanced compliance readiness or initial engagements with investment banks, raising expectations for a late-year IPO. Apr 25, 2026 - Apr 28, 2026, Databricks price rebounded from 17.5c to 27c, likely due to a resurgence of positive market sentiment regarding its IPO preparations, or strong business performance data attracting institutional optimism. Apr 22, 2026 - Apr 25, 2026, SHEIN price plummeted from 43c to 25.5c, as its IPO application in London or the US faced renewed regulatory headwinds, and earlier positive rumors failed to materialize, prompting speculative funds to exit rapidly. Apr 22, 2026 - Apr 23, 2026, Epic Games price dropped sharply from 38.5c to 24c, as market rumors regarding a finalized IPO roadmap lacked official confirmation, rapidly wiping out earlier gains. Apr 21, 2026 - Apr 24, 2026, WHOOP price plummeted from 58.5c to 31.5c, as rumors of an accelerated IPO process were debunked, or the company further clarified its intention to delay going public to focus on internal business. Apr 20, 2026 - Apr 23, 2026, Ledger price surged from 24.5c to 34c, possibly due to a reassessment of crypto asset custody regulatory expectations or internal compliance progress. Apr 19, 2026 - Apr 22, 2026, SHEIN price surged from 25c to 43c, driven by further positive news regarding breakthrough progress in regulatory approvals for its London or US IPO. Apr 19, 2026 - Apr 22, 2026, Epic Games price surged from 20.5c to 38.5c, as market rumors emerged that it has begun finalizing its IPO roadmap after resolving several legal and regulatory disputes. (Note: It subsequently fell back to 24c on Apr 23, likely because rumors were unconfirmed). Apr 19, 2026 - Apr 22, 2026, WHOOP price plummeted from 56.5c to 34.5c, as the company likely signaled a clear intention to delay its IPO plans to focus on internal business growth. Apr 18, 2026 - Apr 20, 2026, Freddie Mac price surged from 15c to 25c, likely due to renewed market speculation regarding policy shifts favoring the privatization and re-listing of Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs). Apr 13, 2026 - Apr 15, 2026, Discord price retreated continuously from 64.5c to 52.6c, as market doubts emerged regarding its timeline for an official listing this year, prompting profit-taking by earlier speculative funds. Apr 12, 2026 - Apr 14, 2026, WHOOP price surged from 45c to 62c, as rumors circulated that it may have confidentially filed an S-1 or hired lead underwriters to accelerate the IPO process. Apr 12, 2026 - Apr 14, 2026, Remote price surged from 24.5c to 38.5c, driven by market expectations of progress in its compliance and expansion plans, reigniting hopes for an IPO this year. Apr 11, 2026 - Apr 12, 2026, Vanta price surged from 14.5c to 26.5c, likely driven by new market rumors regarding accelerated compliance audits and IPO preparations. Apr 6, 2026 - Apr 8, 2026, Ledger price dropped significantly from 35c to 25c, as tightened crypto custody regulations forced the market to continue pricing in a pessimistic outlook for a delayed IPO to meet compliance demands. Apr 4, 2026 - Apr 7, 2026, OpenAI price surged from 37c to 48.5c, as the market anticipates potential structural adjustments that could accelerate its IPO process this year. Apr 3, 2026 - Apr 5, 2026, Applied Intuition price surged from 16c to 37c, driven by continuing strong growth expectations for its autonomous vehicle software testing platform and escalating rumors of IPO preparations. Apr 1, 2026 - Apr 3, 2026, WHOOP price plunged from 49c to 30.5c and quickly rebounded to 46c, as market fears of a delayed IPO were likely mitigated by subsequent clarifications. Mar 27, 2026 - Apr 2, 2026, Discord price retreated continuously from 72.05c to 60.15c, as the Q1 S-1 filing rumors completely failed to materialize, resulting in time decay and the withdrawal of speculative funds. Mar 27, 2026 - Apr 2, 2026, SHEIN price plummeted from 41.5c to 24.5c before slightly rebounding to 30c, caused by stricter regulatory headwinds for its IPO application in London or the US.

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