As April 3 approaches, weather forecast models have further converged. Due to expected rainfall, the...

The title broadly says 'Shanghai', but rules strictly specify the Pudong Airport station (ZSPD), which is coastal and can have a temperature variance from downtown. Additionally, resolving purely on Wunderground's integer Celsius data and ignoring post-finalization revisions creates pitfalls for traders relying on general weather apps.

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 15°C option surged from 6c to 21c, as the latest weather forecasts indicated rain on April 3, leading to lower high-temperature expectations. March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the '20°C or higher' option plummeted from 28c to 2c, and the 19°C option dropped from 26.5c to 3.5c, because short-term forecasts became clearer and increased precipitation chances ruled out abnormal high temperatures. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the 16°C option surged from 17c to 37c, because forecasting models converged, ruling out extreme cold and heat, making this range the most likely outcome for the daily high.

According to the latest prediction market prices, the current probabilities are mainly concentrated ...

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a single day is a typical weather prediction market. While people check weather daily, trading on specific degree ranges is somewhat niche and mostly appeals to weather enthusiasts or local residents.

2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of '14°C' surged from 19c to 42c, as approaching weather forecasts increasingly confirmed that the daily high temperature is highly likely to fall within this range. 2026-03-30 to 2026-03-31, the price of '16°C or higher' plummeted from 41.5c to 14.5c because weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of unusually high temperatures as the date approached. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30, the price of '11°C' spiked from 17.5c to 31.5c before falling back to 2.9c, due to short-term weather forecast fluctuations causing temporary shifts in market expectations. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30, the price of '10°C' plummeted from 17.5c to 1.45c as weather forecasts gradually confirmed that the temperature would be higher than this range on that day.

Current weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature at Incheon Airport on April 4 is expect...

There is a significant mismatch trap between the title and the rules. The title asks for the highest temperature in 'Seoul', but the resolution criteria strictly rely on data from the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station'. Incheon is coastal and outside central Seoul, often resulting in temperature differences. Traders who only read the title are highly likely to misjudge the outcome.

Between March 30, 2026, 05:05 and March 31, 2026, 03:45, the price for '17°C or higher' experienced significant volatility, dropping from 36c to 10.5c before rebounding to 29.5c, indicating severe market division over extreme high-temperature forecasts, largely driven by short-term weather model updates. Between 19:20 and 21:30 on March 29, 2026, the price for '17°C or higher' dropped from 25.5c to 13c and bounced back to 26c, while the price for '15°C' plunged from 25.5c to 13.5c. This indicates significant market indecision regarding extreme high-temperature options, likely driven by short-term weather model updates.

According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the high temperature at Taoyuan Airport (Dayuan Di...

The title asks for the highest temperature in 'Taipei,' but the detailed rules explicitly state that resolution is based on data from 'Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport (RCTP).' Since the airport is located in Taoyuan City rather than downtown Taipei, and temperatures often differ significantly between the two due to microclimates, this creates a major rule trap for traders who only read the title and check Taipei's forecast.

Predicting the exact weather of a specific location on a given date is a niche novelty topic in prediction markets. While not extremely bizarre, the general public does not typically ponder such hyper-specific daily weather details unprompted.

Between Mar 31 and Apr 1, 2026, the price of '26°C' surged from 26.5c to 40.5c (before settling at 33c), and '27°C' rose from 9.5c to 20.5c. This was driven by updated weather models indicating reduced rain probability and cloud cover, pushing expected afternoon highs upward. Between 14:35 and 16:45 on Mar 30, 2026, the price of '26°C' plunged from 21.5c to 9.5c, as updated weather models reinforced the expectation that rain would suppress peak daytime temperatures. Between 19:05 and 20:10 on Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '29°C or higher' surged from 13c to 25.5c, '23°C' from 7c to 16c, '24°C' from 17c to 25c, and '25°C' from 16.5c to 24.5c. This was likely driven by speculative buying across multiple options due to a lack of market consensus, significantly inflating the overall Yes prices.

According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Sao Paulo Guarulhos International...

Although weather derivatives exist in niche financial circles, betting on the specific high temperature of a particular city on a single day is relatively obscure and mundane, lacking broad social engagement and conversational appeal.

March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 0.29c to 0.395c, as some meteorological models indicated delayed rainfall, increasing the potential for daytime heating. March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 29°C option surged from 0.055c to 0.265c, as short-term weather forecasting models adjusted high-temperature expectations upwards, making 29°C a strong contender. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the 23°C or below option plummeted from 0.0795c to 0.0035c, because short-term weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of extreme low temperatures.

Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Wunderground and Google Weather) indicate a high of 27°C (80°F) for April 2, while Polymarket traders currently favor 28°C (36%). This divergence may be due to traders factoring in localized urban heat island effects at the airport station or slight lags in forecast model updates.