There is some divergence. A few online forecasts (such as certain Weather Underground feeds or automated Google Weather results) suggest the high on May 6 could be as low as 62°F. However, the prediction market strongly favors 68-71°F, indicating that traders either trust other models predicting higher temperatures (like AccuWeather's 70-71°F) more, or are pricing in recent upward revisions in the weather forecast.

While weather prediction is a relatively standard category within niche prediction markets, guessing the exact highest temperature of a specific day in Warsaw, Poland, remains a marginal and uncommon topic for the general public or traditional investors.

Predicting the exact lowest daily temperature in a specific city is common in specialized weather derivatives, but remains a relatively niche and somewhat novelty topic for the general public and mainstream prediction markets.

May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 7°C plummeted from 39c to 7c as market expectations shifted towards a warmer night, causing funds to flow into higher temperature options. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 8°C surged from 12.5c to 39c as updated forecasts made it a safer consensus middle ground. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 9°C surged from 21c to 44.5c before settling at 37c, likely due to some short-term forecast models overestimating the warming effect of overnight cloud cover.

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket's current leading options are 9°C and 10°C, yet the official resolution source (Wunderground) and mainstream media (BBC, Met Office) forecast a low around 45°F (7.2°C) or 7-8°C. The market is evidently overestimating the low temperature, potentially because traders are referencing urban London temperatures rather than the cooler London City Airport station.

May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 27°C option surged from 24.5c to a peak of 53c, then stabilized around 47c; concurrently, the 26°C option rose from 23c to 42.5c. Meanwhile, the 28°C option plummeted from 20.5c to 3.5c. The reason is that as the date approached, meteorological forecasts ruled out the possibility of unusually high temperatures, pinning the expected maximum strictly within the 26-27 Celsius range.