Based on the latest weather forecast data, the highest temperature in Wellington on April 3, 2026, i...

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '19°C' climbed from 31.5c to 40c, while '20°C' briefly rose to 25.5c before settling back to 20c, reflecting a slight upward revision in the latest weather forecasts, concentrating market funds on 19°C and 20°C. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '21°C' spiked to 44.5c on March 30 at 07:40 before falling back to the 10-15c range, reflecting brief uncertainty in weather forecasts or large single trades impacting thin liquidity. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '16°C' surged from 11.5c to 36.5c before retracing to 17.5c; concurrently, '22°C or higher' experienced a severe swing, spiking from 12c to 39.5c before dropping back. The reason is likely poor market liquidity approaching the resolution date, coupled with large speculative buys from bettors reacting to minor meteorological model updates, causing temporary extreme price deviations.

Latest weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature in Atlanta on April 4, 2026, is expec...

March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '84°F or higher' dropped from 36c to 10.5c, '82-83°F' surged from 11.5c to 31.5c, and '80-81°F' surged from 10.5c to 29c. This is because the latest weather models ruled out the possibility of extreme heat, concentrating the expected highest temperature in the 80-83°F range. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '80-81°F' dropped sharply from 25c to 13.5c, while '84°F or higher' rose from 24.5c to 35.5c. This was likely due to traders adjusting their positions regarding the probability of extreme heat based on the weather models at the time.

There is some divergence. Some mainstream public weather forecasts (such as the data directly cited by Google) show the maximum temperature on April 4 to be around 78-79°F. However, the prediction market still assigns an implied probability of over 70% to the 80-84°F and higher ranges. This indicates that professional traders might be referencing more detailed meteorological ensemble models (like ECMWF or GFS), believing that the localized microclimate at the airport station (KATL) and specific high-pressure systems will cause the actual recorded high to be slightly warmer than general city forecasts. [2]

Latest meteorological forecasts indicate rain for Buenos Aires Ezeiza Airport (SAEZ) on April 3, 202...

A typical weather derivative prediction. While not uncommon in prediction markets, predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is not an everyday concern for the general public.

March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the '29°C or higher' option surged from 10.5c to 52c, driven by traders betting heavily on potential short-term weather uncertainties or heat wave expectations approaching the resolution date. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the '26°C' option plunged from 24.5c to 7.5c, as updated meteorological models indicated a clear upward revision in expected temperatures.

The price of '29°C or higher' on Polymarket (around 43.5c) implies a very high probability of extreme heat. However, mainstream meteorological platforms (e.g., Google Weather and Ventusky) forecast rain and high temperatures of only 26°C-27°C for April 3 [2, 11]. This indicates that market pricing is severely lagging behind the latest weather forecast updates.

The latest weather forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather) for Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX) on Apr...

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a relatively niche topic and outside mainstream public attention. However, weather forecasting itself is a standard underlying in weather derivatives, making it moderately exotic.

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '74-75°F' surged from 13.5c to 28.5c, and '78°F or higher' jumped from 7c to 21.5c. This upward movement was driven by short-range weather forecast models revising expected daytime highs upward, suggesting an earlier burn-off of the marine layer and potential offshore warming. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '62-63°F' plummeted from 17.5c to 3.6c, and '76-77°F' dropped from 17.5c to 8.1c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, weather forecast models became increasingly confident that temperatures will concentrate around 70-75°F, prompting the market to price out extreme outcomes. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '70-71°F' rose from 18c to 27.5c, peaking around 32c. This was driven by earlier updated forecasts (e.g., National Weather Service guidance) indicating the daily high was highly likely to land exactly around 70-72°F, attracting buyers to this bracket.

The market is currently extremely pessimistic about the Rotten Tomatoes score for the upcoming Super...

2026-04-01 - 2026-04-02, the price of the '45+' option plummeted from 83.5c to 35.5c. The reason is likely the emergence of extremely negative early reviews or leaked internal reception for the movie. 2026-03-31 - 2026-04-02, the price of the '50+' option plummeted from 51.5c to 5.5c. This is also due to the extremely poor early reception, making the market believe that a score of 50%+ is highly unlikely.