All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)
YesNo
Lebanese Forces (LF)
YesNo
Independence Movement (IM)
YesNo
Dignity Movement (DM)
YesNo
Islamic Group (IG)
YesNo
Taqaddom Party
YesNo
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
YesNo
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)
YesNo
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
YesNo
Hezbollah (Hezb)
YesNo
Union Party (UP)
YesNo
Amal Movement (Amal)
YesNo
Marada Movement (MM)
YesNo
Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)
YesNo
Mada Party (Mada)
YesNo
National Dialogue Party (NDP)
YesNo
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
YesNo
National Liberal Party (NLP)
YesNo
Khatt Ahmar
YesNo
Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)
YesNo
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)
YesNo
Watani Alliance (Watani)
YesNo
ReLebanon
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 20:18 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market pricing is structurally pivoted around the unlisted 'Future Movement' (Saad Hariri). The sum of all 'Yes' prices is approximately 26-28c, implying a >72% probability for the 'Other' outcome (Hariri winning or election delays/ambiguity). This is rational, as Hariri's potential return would likely secure the largest parliamentary bloc, resolving all listed options to No. Lebanese Forces (LF) trading around 13.5c represents the residual probability that Hariri does not run, in which case LF remains the favorite for the largest party. Most minor parties should be priced near zero; current small premiums are merely long-tail noise.
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Rule Risk
There is an extremely high resolution risk. The rules contain a fatal timing trap: if results are not known by Feb 28, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'. However, the very first line states elections are 'expected to be held in May 2026'. This means unless the election is drastically rescheduled to February, the market is mathematically guaranteed to resolve to 'Other'. This is a massive trap for traders who overlook the specific date clause.
