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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
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Charity Clark
YesNo
Mike Pieciak
YesNo
Esther Charlestin
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.03 20:38 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to multiple authoritative local Vermont media reports (Seven Days, VTDigger) from February-March 2026, the leading Democratic contenders have opted to run for other offices or declined a gubernatorial bid. Charity Clark has announced her campaign for re-election as Attorney General. Mike Pieciak is reported to be 'shying away' from a run to focus on re-election as State Treasurer, with key staff departures signaling he will not run. Esther Charlestin, while previously a candidate, has reportedly entered the race for Lieutenant Governor. Given popular GOP incumbent Phil Scott's dominance (74% approval), Democrats face a field clearing, making 'Other' the most likely winner. The fair value for the listed options is near zero.
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Rule Risk
Significant candidate uncertainty exists. As of Feb 2026, no major candidates have formally declared. Search results suggest Mike Pieciak may not run. Since the market only lists two specific names, if neither runs or a third party wins, these options resolve to 'No'. While the 'No Primary' clause is clear, the risk lies in the incomplete field and the potential for a 'winner' not listed in the options, meaning holders of these two names would lose their entire wager.
Movers
From March 1, 2026, to March 3, 2026, Mike Pieciak's price dropped from 37c to 26.5c, indicating high volatility as the market corrected following a speculative spike, realigning with signals of his non-candidacy. Previously, from February 25 to February 26, 2026, Pieciak's price crashed from 42c to 18c, and Charity Clark's fell from 53.5c to 37.5c, driven by reports confirming their intentions to seek re-election for Treasurer and Attorney General respectively.
Divergence
Market pricing implies a ~70% combined chance for these three candidates, whereas mainstream media (e.g., Seven Days) explicitly states 'zero' prominent Democrats are poised to challenge Phil Scott. Reports confirm Clark and Pieciak are seeking re-election to their current seats and Charlestin is running for Lt. Gov. The market is significantly disconnected from political reality.
