Lowest temperature in London on May 11? - AI Found +58.6¢ Mispricing

Weather|$10.9k Vol|

4 hrs 10 mins

Lowest temperature in London on May 11? - AI Found +58.6¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.10 17:55

Top Undervalued

+58.6¢

5°C(No)

+24.2¢

4°C(Yes)

+4.5¢

3°C(Yes)

Lowest temperature in London on May 11? AI analysis: • +58.6¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest weather forecasts, the lowest temperature in London on May 11 is expected to...

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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Culture|$687.5k Vol|

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Yes' shares for all 15 countries to create a risk-free portfolio that guarantees a payout for exactly 10 winning spots. Plan Description: Because exactly 10 countries must advance to the final, the sum of probabilities should be exactly 1...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the Eurovision First Semi-Final rules, exactly 10 countries will advance to the final. ...

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[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Key Timeline & Staging Effects: Based on Eurovision traditions, analyze potential catalysts within the next 48 hours to one month (e.g., the official 'Running Order' announcement or April Pre-party live sets). For entries like Finland or Croatia that typically rely on staging, could the reveal of rehearsal footage serve as a primary driver for imminent price volatility?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final' to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for popular options like Israel/Sweden versus underdogs like San Marino. Combining this with 'To Qualify' odds on Eurovision World, assess if current prices are fair or if arbitrage opportunities exist against mainstream bookmakers.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Key Timeline & Staging Effects: Based on Eurovision traditions, analyze potential catalysts within the next 48 hours to one month (e.g., the official 'Running Order' announcement or April Pre-party live sets). For entries like Finland or Croatia that typically rely on staging, could the reveal of rehearsal footage serve as a primary driver for imminent price volatility?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final' to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for popular options like Israel/Sweden versus underdogs like San Marino. Combining this with 'To Qualify' odds on Eurovision World, assess if current prices are fair or if arbitrage opportunities exist against mainstream bookmakers.

Politics|$4.1m Vol|

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Jerome Powell's statutory term as Fed Chair expires on May 15, 2026. There is a strong consensus tha...

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Powell's unexpected departure (whether resignation or removal) would be a massive 'Black Swan' event, triggering extreme panic regarding monetary policy continuity. US Treasury yields would experience violent volatility (direction depending on successor expectations), equities could crash due to uncertainty, and Gold would spike as a safe haven. The impact is sufficient to alter medium-term macro trends.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

[Category 1: Rule Pitfall] Key Timeline Check: Search official Federal Reserve documents or the U.S. Code to verify the exact legal expiration date of Powell's current term (commonly cited as May 2026). Specifically confirm: If he serves until the very last day of his statutory term (e.g., May 15), will the 'Out by May 14' option resolve to 'No'? Is there a risk of misjudgment based on a one-day difference?

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

netflix|$11.1k Vol|

What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Top Undervalued

Remarkably Bright Creatures(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest price trends, Apex has surged to 95.5c over the last two days, effectively locki...

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May 8, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of Apex surged from 46.5c to 95.5c, while Remarkably Bright Creatures collapsed from 47.5c to 3.4c, and Swapped dropped from 25.5c to 0.1c. This was driven by late-week viewership data solidifying Apex as the definitive #2 global movie, effectively eliminating its competitors. May 8, 2026, the price of Apex dropped from 50c to 41.5c before rebounding to 45c, while Remarkably Bright Creatures surged from 35.5c to 47.5c. This was driven by pre-weekend viewership data updates showing strong growth for Remarkably Bright Creatures, allowing it to overtake the previously leading Apex. May 5, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of Remarkably Bright Creatures rose from 26.5c to 36c, driven by strong mid-week streaming performance that positioned it as a solid contender for the #2 global spot. May 5, 2026 - May 7, 2026, multiple options including Bugonia, Black Phone 2, Ladies First, Gladiator II, Roommates, Green Book, and The Silent Twins plummeted from around 24c-26c to below 12c (some dropping below 4c). This was due to the solidification of viewership data as the week progressed, effectively eliminating them from the global Top 2 contention.

Verify the historical update consistency of top10.netflix.com to confirm if there is any risk of the global Top 10 movies data being delayed past May 15, 2026, triggering an 'Other' resolution.

Politics|$10.1k Vol|

175 days 16 hrs

Alabama Senate Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Alabama is a traditionally deep-red state with a very strong Republican base. The prediction market ...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the "Alabama Senate Election Winner" to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread given the low volume (~$7,800), and combine this with Alabama's fundamental status as a "Deep Red" state to assess if the current odds reasonably reflect the Republican advantage.

Politics|$12.3k Vol|

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Benjamin Netanyahu is known for his extreme political survivability. Despite facing the ongoing Gaza...

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What exactly counts as a 'definitive announcement' for Netanyahu dropping out, and how will this market resolve if he only hints at considering resignation before July 31, 2026?

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

5°C

YesNo

98.55¢

1.45¢

40¢

60¢

0¢

+58.6¢

4°C

YesNo

0.75¢

99.25¢

25¢

75¢

+24.2¢

0¢

Expand to view all 7 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

On May 10, 2026, the price of the 3°C option plummeted from 17.5c to 3.5c, and the 4°C option dropped from 21.5c to 12.5c. This occurred because updated weather models closer to the date significantly reduced the likelihood of extreme low temperatures (3°C and below). On May 9, 2026, the price of '9°C or higher' crashed from 25c to 5.5c, 8°C fell from 18c to 4.5c, and 2°C dropped from 11.5c to 3.5c. This was driven by forecasts narrowing the expected low temperature range for May 11, prompting the market to discount the probability of both higher and extremely low temperatures.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Culture|$687.5k Vol|

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Yes' shares for all 15 countries to create a risk-free portfolio that guarantees a payout for exactly 10 winning spots. Plan Description: Because exactly 10 countries must advance to the final, the sum of probabilities should be exactly 1...

🔓 Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the Eurovision First Semi-Final rules, exactly 10 countries will advance to the final. ...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Key Timeline & Staging Effects: Based on Eurovision traditions, analyze potential catalysts within the next 48 hours to one month (e.g., the official 'Running Order' announcement or April Pre-party live sets). For entries like Finland or Croatia that typically rely on staging, could the reveal of rehearsal footage serve as a primary driver for imminent price volatility?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final' to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for popular options like Israel/Sweden versus underdogs like San Marino. Combining this with 'To Qualify' odds on Eurovision World, assess if current prices are fair or if arbitrage opportunities exist against mainstream bookmakers.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Key Timeline & Staging Effects: Based on Eurovision traditions, analyze potential catalysts within the next 48 hours to one month (e.g., the official 'Running Order' announcement or April Pre-party live sets). For entries like Finland or Croatia that typically rely on staging, could the reveal of rehearsal footage serve as a primary driver for imminent price volatility?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final' to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for popular options like Israel/Sweden versus underdogs like San Marino. Combining this with 'To Qualify' odds on Eurovision World, assess if current prices are fair or if arbitrage opportunities exist against mainstream bookmakers.

Politics|$4.1m Vol|

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Jerome Powell's statutory term as Fed Chair expires on May 15, 2026. There is a strong consensus tha...

🔓 Log in to see more

Powell's unexpected departure (whether resignation or removal) would be a massive 'Black Swan' event, triggering extreme panic regarding monetary policy continuity. US Treasury yields would experience violent volatility (direction depending on successor expectations), equities could crash due to uncertainty, and Gold would spike as a safe haven. The impact is sufficient to alter medium-term macro trends.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

[Category 1: Rule Pitfall] Key Timeline Check: Search official Federal Reserve documents or the U.S. Code to verify the exact legal expiration date of Powell's current term (commonly cited as May 2026). Specifically confirm: If he serves until the very last day of his statutory term (e.g., May 15), will the 'Out by May 14' option resolve to 'No'? Is there a risk of misjudgment based on a one-day difference?

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

netflix|$11.1k Vol|

What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Top Undervalued

Remarkably Bright Creatures(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest price trends, Apex has surged to 95.5c over the last two days, effectively locki...

🔓 Log in to see more

May 8, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of Apex surged from 46.5c to 95.5c, while Remarkably Bright Creatures collapsed from 47.5c to 3.4c, and Swapped dropped from 25.5c to 0.1c. This was driven by late-week viewership data solidifying Apex as the definitive #2 global movie, effectively eliminating its competitors. May 8, 2026, the price of Apex dropped from 50c to 41.5c before rebounding to 45c, while Remarkably Bright Creatures surged from 35.5c to 47.5c. This was driven by pre-weekend viewership data updates showing strong growth for Remarkably Bright Creatures, allowing it to overtake the previously leading Apex. May 5, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of Remarkably Bright Creatures rose from 26.5c to 36c, driven by strong mid-week streaming performance that positioned it as a solid contender for the #2 global spot. May 5, 2026 - May 7, 2026, multiple options including Bugonia, Black Phone 2, Ladies First, Gladiator II, Roommates, Green Book, and The Silent Twins plummeted from around 24c-26c to below 12c (some dropping below 4c). This was due to the solidification of viewership data as the week progressed, effectively eliminating them from the global Top 2 contention.

Verify the historical update consistency of top10.netflix.com to confirm if there is any risk of the global Top 10 movies data being delayed past May 15, 2026, triggering an 'Other' resolution.

Politics|$10.1k Vol|

175 days 16 hrs

Alabama Senate Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Alabama is a traditionally deep-red state with a very strong Republican base. The prediction market ...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the "Alabama Senate Election Winner" to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread given the low volume (~$7,800), and combine this with Alabama's fundamental status as a "Deep Red" state to assess if the current odds reasonably reflect the Republican advantage.

Politics|$12.3k Vol|

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Benjamin Netanyahu is known for his extreme political survivability. Despite facing the ongoing Gaza...

🔓 Log in to see more

What exactly counts as a 'definitive announcement' for Netanyahu dropping out, and how will this market resolve if he only hints at considering resignation before July 31, 2026?

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