Lowest temperature in London on May 2?
Weather|$11.8k Vol|
time2 hrs 33 mins

Lowest temperature in London on May 2? - AI Found +63.9¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 20:58
Top Undervalued
+63.9¢
11°C(No)
+24.1¢
10°C(Yes)
+4.7¢
9°C(Yes)

Lowest temperature in London on May 2? AI analysis: • +63.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the lowest temperature at London City Airport (EGLC) on M...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 1 - May 8, 2026?
Politics|$16.5k Vol|
time6 days 6 hrs

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 1 - May 8, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+18.5¢
100-119(No)
+12.5¢
140-159(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Donald Trump posts very frequently on Truth Social, typically averaging between 15 and 25 posts and ...
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Rule Risk
Resolution heavily relies on a specific tracker (xtracker). The rules contain edge cases regarding 'replies' (counted if recorded on the main feed) and 'deleted posts' (counted if they survive ~5 mins). This creates a risk of divergence between the tracker's captured data and manual counts on the platform.
Exotics
Betting on the exact number of social media posts by a specific public figure on a specific platform in a given week is a highly niche and novelty entertainment market. The general public rarely considers or tracks such granular details.
Movers
April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, prices for almost all options plummeted (e.g., '100-119' dropped from 48c to 22c, '200+' from 48.5c to 5.15c). The reason is that uncalibrated initial liquidity upon market creation pushed all 'Yes' options to roughly 40-50c, which were subsequently corrected by traders pricing in realistic weekly posting volumes.
AI Analysis
What was Donald Trump's average weekly posting frequency on Truth Social over the past 3 months?
Elon Musk # tweets May 1 - May 8, 2026?
Culture|$1.7m Vol|
time6 days 6 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets May 1 - May 8, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+1.5¢
160-179(No)
+1¢
260-279(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market pricing and posting behavior since the tracker started, the 180-219 range...
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Rule Risk
The rules contain significant caveats: normal replies do not count (which make up the majority of Musk's activity), but main-feed replies do. Deleted posts count if kept for >5 minutes. Furthermore, resolution heavily relies on a specific custom tracker, which may yield vastly different totals compared to a user's manual count on X.
Exotics
Betting on the exact number of tweets a public figure makes in a specific week is a highly niche and entertainment-driven market. Ordinary people do not ponder the exact statistical count of such trivial daily activities, making it a classic novelty prediction market.
AI Analysis
What was Elon Musk's average weekly tweet count (excluding standard replies) over the past year?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 2?
Weather|$20.0k Vol|
time2 hrs 33 mins

Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 2?

Top Undervalued
+16¢
58-59°F(No)
+11¢
62-63°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological data and forecasts from outlets like the SF Chronicle, the Ba...
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Movers
April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The Yes price for 60-61°F surged from 20.5c to 48c (before settling at 44c), and 62-63°F also spiked from 17c to 34.5c (then normalized to 27c). This was driven by weather forecast models solidifying the extent of the weekend cooldown, confirming that a deep marine layer would suppress the airport's high temperatures to the low 60s.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this San Francisco May 2 temperature market in simple terms. What happens if the historical data on Wunderground is revised after the data is finalized?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 2?
Weather|$41.6k Vol|
time2 hrs 33 mins

Highest temperature in Moscow on May 2?

Top Undervalued
+31.1¢
15°C(No)
+17¢
13°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current time is 2:56 AM UTC on May 2 (5:56 AM Moscow time). There is very little time left until...
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Exotics
Betting on the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a typical weather prediction market. While somewhat niche to the general public, it is a standard topic in prediction markets and meteorological quantitative circles, not extremely bizarre.
Movers
May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of '13°C' surged from ~19c to 33c, and '14°C' surged from 24.5c to 37.5c. Concurrently, '15°C' plummeted from 25c to 13c, and '16°C' plunged from 11c to 2c. This was caused by more precise weather forecasts becoming available as the target date approached, lowering the expected high temperature to around 13-14°C.
AI Analysis
How exactly is the highest temperature determined for this Moscow weather market, and what happens if NOAA updates their Vnukovo Airport data later?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?
Weather|$28.4k Vol|
time2 hrs 33 mins

Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?

Top Undervalued
+31¢
11°C(No)
+29.5¢
12°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the high temperature in Istanbul on May 2, 2026, i...
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Movers
On May 1, 2026, the price of the 11°C option surged from 13.5c to 37c, while the 13°C option plummeted from 28c to 10.5c, as updated meteorological forecasts narrowed the expected high temperature range closer to 11°C-12°C rather than 13°C. On April 30, 2026, the 11°C option briefly plunged from 28c to 10c due to short-term fluctuations in early weather models, which shifted volume toward the 12°C and 13°C options.
AI Analysis
Search historical NOAA weather data for Istanbul Airport to calculate the actual frequency of the highest temperature falling into each specific bracket (e.g., 18°C or higher, 12°C) in early May over the past few years.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
11°C
YesNo
98.9¢
1.1¢
35¢
65¢
0¢
+63.9¢
10°C
YesNo
0.9¢
99.1¢
25¢
75¢
+24.1¢
0¢

Expand to view all 7 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
Between May 1, 2026 14:23:19 and 15:28:18, the price of 9°C spiked from 11c to 30.45c, then fell back to around 10c. This may be due to a short-term weather forecast update or a large trade. Between April 30, 2026 06:58:19 and 14:33:19, the price of 11°C plummeted from 59c to 13c, then recovered to 34.5c, due to adjustments in forecast models causing shifts in minimum temperature expectations. Between April 30, 2026 05:53:19 and 08:03:18, the price of 14°C surged from 16.5c to 38.5c, then dropped to below 1c, likely caused by an anomalous forecast or trader error.

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