May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 27°C option surged from 24.5c to a peak of 53c, then stabilized around 47c; concurrently, the 26°C option rose from 23c to 42.5c. Meanwhile, the 28°C option plummeted from 20.5c to 3.5c. The reason is that as the date approached, meteorological forecasts ruled out the possibility of unusually high temperatures, pinning the expected maximum strictly within the 26-27 Celsius range.

While weather prediction is a relatively standard category within niche prediction markets, guessing the exact highest temperature of a specific day in Warsaw, Poland, remains a marginal and uncommon topic for the general public or traditional investors.

There is some divergence. A few online forecasts (such as certain Weather Underground feeds or automated Google Weather results) suggest the high on May 6 could be as low as 62°F. However, the prediction market strongly favors 68-71°F, indicating that traders either trust other models predicting higher temperatures (like AccuWeather's 70-71°F) more, or are pricing in recent upward revisions in the weather forecast.