While weather forecasting is a daily routine, betting on the precise maximum temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche market. It appeals mainly to weather enthusiasts and short-term data arbitrageurs, giving it moderate novelty.

From April 24, 2026 to April 25, 2026, the price of 18°C climbed from 41.5c to 68c, while 17°C dropped from 38.5c to 22c. This was due to updated forecasts increasingly pointing towards a high of 18°C (64°F). From April 24, 2026 to April 25, 2026, the price of 19°C fell from a high of 25.5c to 7.5c, as the expected high temperature range narrowed down to 17-18°C, drastically reducing the probability of reaching 19°C.

April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 42c to 61c, and the 24°C option rose from 16.5c to 38.5c, while the 22°C option plummeted from 28.5c to 5.5c. The reason is that as the settlement time approaches, weather forecasts have further locked the day's high at around 23°C, ruling out lower temperatures. April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 24°C option increased from 9.5c to 35.5c, and the 22°C option dropped from 40.5c to 10c, because short-to-medium-term forecast models raised their expectations for Madrid's temperatures during this period.

Weather prediction is a common type of quantitative data market in prediction platforms, so it is not extremely bizarre. However, for the vast majority of people not living there, the exact daily high temperature in Lagos, Nigeria, is rarely a topic of consideration.

Between 07:13 and 08:18 on April 23, 2026, the price of the '32°C' option plummeted from 19c to 4c. This was caused by updated weather forecasts adjusting the expected high temperature for April 25 upwards to around 35°C, prompting the market to heavily discount lower temperature ranges.

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is a standard format in prediction markets. However, for the general public, it remains somewhat niche as people rarely focus on such specific, micro-level daily metrics unless there's an extreme weather warning.