Predicting the exact number of posts by a public figure in a specific week is a classic novelty market. Unless they are betting, general audiences rarely care about such granular data.

April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026: The Yes price for the 60-79 option surged from 0.75c to 32.7c, and the 80-99 option surged from 14c to 55.5c. This was due to a downward adjustment in posting pace expectations for the specific time window, combined with structural distortions in the order book. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026: The Yes price for the 120-139 option rose from 16.5c to 32c, as early forecasting funds identified this bracket as closely aligning with his historical average output.

The rules exclude replies but note that replies recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker, which could cause resolution disputes. Furthermore, settlement heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com). Any tracker downtime or missed data (e.g., posts deleted before being captured) creates a risk of discrepancy with actual X data.

This is a typical novelty market for prediction platforms. For the general public, unless specifically incentivized, absolutely no one would care about or predict the exact number of tweets posted by the White House account in a single week, making it quite exotic.

Between 06:03 and 16:03 on April 28, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option surged from 38c to 58c, '180-199' surged from 23.5c to 44c, and '200+' surged from 14.5c to 45c. This suggests market expectations of a significantly higher posting frequency, likely due to breaking news or an intensive promotional campaign for a specific event. Between April 27 and April 28, 2026, lower posting brackets (e.g., 40-59, 60-79) experienced brief and anomalous price spikes (reaching ~24c) at 16:03 on April 28, before quickly retreating. This was likely due to mispricing from illiquidity or large market orders sweeping the book.

The rules rely heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and include a fuzzy ~5-minute capture window for deleted posts, while also distinguishing between 'main feed replies' and 'normal replies'. These technical nuances can cause discrepancies between tracked data and user observations, leading to a moderate risk of resolution disputes.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts a public figure makes in a specific week is a typical novelty behavioral market. It appears quite absurd and bizarre to the general public, even though such markets are somewhat popular in prediction circles due to Musk's high profile.

On April 28, 2026, the Yes price for the '240-259' bracket dropped significantly from a high of 47c down to 19c, while '220-239' also fell from 27c to 19.5c. This occurred because, after accumulating initial data, the market realized the tweeting frequency did not meet the extreme highs initially projected, leading to a recalibration of the probability distribution as funds flowed into broader adjacent brackets like 200-219 and 260-279. Earlier on April 28, 2026, multiple brackets experienced significant price shifts. The '240-259' bracket surged from 19c to 47c, and '220-239' rose from 18c to 27c. These drastic movements reflect aggressive market recalibrations and hedging based on the actual tweeting velocity observed during the initial hours of the market period.

April 14, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of MBA Moscow surged from 17c to 46c due to extreme illiquidity in the market, where minor speculative buying caused massive price distortion. April 14, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of Lokomotiv Kuban surged from 31c to 47.5c, similarly driven by the lack of market-making capital and low volume. No options have experienced a price swing of more than 10 cents over the past 3 days previously. The market lacks overall liquidity (based on historical context).

There is a severe logical flaw in market pricing. The sum of all 'Yes' prices exceeds 350%, implying multiple teams could win simultaneously, which completely contradicts the reality of a single-champion tournament. This is a textbook example of an inefficient market lacking market makers and liquidity.

April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of HC Dynamo Pardubice surged from 49.5c to 66.5c. This was caused by the team winning their semifinal series and advancing to the finals against HC Oceláři Třinec. As the regular season champions and with fewer competitors remaining, their probability of winning the championship increased significantly. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, prices for all options hovered around 48-50c, as the semifinal results were still pending and the market lacked clear direction.