How exactly will the lowest temperature in Seoul on May 6 be determined and when does the market resolve?

AI-powered analysis for: How exactly will the lowest temperature in Seoul on May 6 be determined and when does the market resolve?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How reliable is the Wunderground history data for Incheon Intl Airport, and what happens if the data for May 6 is delayed or missing?

AI-powered analysis for: How reliable is the Wunderground history data for Incheon Intl Airport, and what happens if the data for May 6 is delayed or missing?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the current weather forecasts for Incheon Airport on May 6, 2026? Are there any alerts for cold fronts or extreme overnight lows?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the current weather forecasts for Incheon Airport on May 6, 2026? Are there any alerts for cold fronts or extreme overnight lows?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Historically, what is the actual frequency of temperatures dropping below 10°C in early May at Incheon Airport?

AI-powered analysis for: Historically, what is the actual frequency of temperatures dropping below 10°C in early May at Incheon Airport?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

At what time in KST (Korean Standard Time) is the Wunderground weather data usually finalized for a specific day?

AI-powered analysis for: At what time in KST (Korean Standard Time) is the Wunderground weather data usually finalized for a specific day?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How accurate is predicting Seoul's overnight low temperature several days in advance? Is this market logically predictable or highly random?

AI-powered analysis for: How accurate is predicting Seoul's overnight low temperature several days in advance? Is this market logically predictable or highly random?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Have there been any past disputes on Polymarket regarding Wunderground weather resolutions (e.g., rounding issues or Fahrenheit to Celsius conversions)?

AI-powered analysis for: Have there been any past disputes on Polymarket regarding Wunderground weather resolutions (e.g., rounding issues or Fahrenheit to Celsius conversions)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

As May 6 approaches, if the forecast remains stable, which temperature options (Yes/No) benefit the most from time decay?

AI-powered analysis for: As May 6 approaches, if the forecast remains stable, which temperature options (Yes/No) benefit the most from time decay?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low volume (under $20), what is the slippage risk if I try to place a $100 bet on a specific range like 12°C?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low volume (under $20), what is the slippage risk if I try to place a $100 bet on a specific range like 12°C?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How can I use a "stink bid" strategy to catch sudden panic selling or fat-finger trades in this low-liquidity Seoul temperature market?

AI-powered analysis for: How can I use a "stink bid" strategy to catch sudden panic selling or fat-finger trades in this low-liquidity Seoul temperature market?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Compared to risk-free yields in DeFi protocols, is it worth the opportunity cost to lock up capital in this Seoul temperature market until the data is finalized?

AI-powered analysis for: Compared to risk-free yields in DeFi protocols, is it worth the opportunity cost to lock up capital in this Seoul temperature market until the data is finalized?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How does the current market odds for the "12°C" option translate into an intuitive weather forecast probability?

AI-powered analysis for: How does the current market odds for the "12°C" option translate into an intuitive weather forecast probability?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the latest forecasts from authorities like the KMA, what is the optimal limit order price for the most likely temperature range?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the latest forecasts from authorities like the KMA, what is the optimal limit order price for the most likely temperature range?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What is the core disagreement in the Polymarket community regarding the May 6 Seoul temperature? Are different weather models predicting conflicting results?

AI-powered analysis for: What is the core disagreement in the Polymarket community regarding the May 6 Seoul temperature? Are different weather models predicting conflicting results?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Are there any breaking weather news, unusual climate patterns, or ocean current changes directly affecting the Korean peninsula's temperature on May 6?

AI-powered analysis for: Are there any breaking weather news, unusual climate patterns, or ocean current changes directly affecting the Korean peninsula's temperature on May 6?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If I spread a $100 investment across the three most likely temperature ranges (e.g., 10°C, 11°C, 12°C), what is the expected net profit after Gas fees?

AI-powered analysis for: If I spread a $100 investment across the three most likely temperature ranges (e.g., 10°C, 11°C, 12°C), what is the expected net profit after Gas fees?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If a weather app suddenly lowers its Seoul forecast causing community FOMO, is there a risk of getting trapped by chasing the "7°C or below" option?

AI-powered analysis for: If a weather app suddenly lowers its Seoul forecast causing community FOMO, is there a risk of getting trapped by chasing the "7°C or below" option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If the price of the "14°C" option drops suddenly, is it typically due to a fundamental change in weather models, or just a technical pullback in a low-liquidity market?

AI-powered analysis for: If the price of the "14°C" option drops suddenly, is it typically due to a fundamental change in weather models, or just a technical pullback in a low-liquidity market?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Are there other city weather prediction markets on Polymarket that can be combined with this "Seoul May 6 temperature" market to construct a correlated betting portfolio?

AI-powered analysis for: Are there other city weather prediction markets on Polymarket that can be combined with this "Seoul May 6 temperature" market to construct a correlated betting portfolio?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are three high-quality meteorological Twitter accounts, YouTube channels, or local Korean weather sources dedicated to tracking Incheon Airport's conditions?

AI-powered analysis for: What are three high-quality meteorological Twitter accounts, YouTube channels, or local Korean weather sources dedicated to tracking Incheon Airport's conditions?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 6?

Weather|$10.9k Vol|

12 hrs 47 mins

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 6? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 1 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+7¢

10°C(Yes)

+6.4¢

11°C(No)

+1.3¢

9°C(No)

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 6? AI analysis: • +7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest meteorological observations and forecasts for the morning of May 6th (KST), ...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

10°C

YesNo

3¢

97¢

10¢

90¢

+7¢

0¢

11°C

YesNo

96.35¢

3.65¢

90¢

10¢

0¢

+6.4¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Rule Risk

The title mentions Seoul, but the rules explicitly specify that the resolution source is the Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI). Temperatures at the airport may differ from central Seoul, which could mislead traders who don't read the rules carefully. Additionally, it resolves to whole degrees Celsius and ignores post-finalization revisions.

Movers

May 5, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 11°C option surged from 56c to 85c, as real-time weather observations on the morning of May 6th indicated the low temperature held at 11°C. May 5, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 10°C option plunged from 35c to 15c, as temperatures did not drop to 10°C by sunrise on May 6th, shifting market expectations. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 12°C option plummeted from 40.5c to 0.25c, as the actually recorded temperature fell below 12°C, making this outcome impossible.