May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the Yes prices for all tiers (e.g., 65+, 75+, 85+) experienced massive surges. For instance, 85+ skyrocketed from 48.5c to over 90c. The reason is the release of the film's early Rotten Tomatoes score after the embargo lifted, landing at a stellar 94%-97%, vastly boosting market confidence.

The main risk involves interpreting diplomatic language. While the rules explicitly exclude temporary ceasefires, determining whether an agreement is truly 'permanent' or 'clearly signals a lasting end' can be subjective if the wording is ambiguous, or if one government claims a deal while the other remains vague.

A permanent US-Iran peace deal would significantly alleviate Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, heavily impacting global energy markets. Crude oil prices would likely experience a sharp drop due to the removal of the war risk premium. Gold would also face downward pressure as safe-haven demand diminishes, while broader equity indices like the S&P 500 might see a moderate relief rally as macro uncertainty clears.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, prices for multiple options surged, with May 15 jumping from 3.55c to 15.25c, May 31 from 13.5c to 27.5c, June 30 from 34.5c to 45.5c, and Dec 31 from 63.5c to 73.5c. The reason is that the market is once again irrationally speculating on short-term diplomatic rumors or ceasefires, reviving peace expectations while ignoring the strict 'permanent' resolution criteria. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of June 30 dropped from 43.5c to 31.5c, and May 31 dropped from 29.5c to 18.5c. The reason is that with the passage of time and reality checks, market speculative sentiment accelerated its retreat, as more capital realized the negligible odds of a permanent peace deal in the short term, triggering further sell-offs. April 25, 2026 - April 29, 2026, option prices did not experience sharp fluctuations exceeding 10c, showing a slow downward trend as market sentiment gradually returned to rationality. April 22, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of May 31 dropped from 45.5c to 30.5c, and June 30 dropped from 60.5c to 47.5c. The reason is that as time passes, it becomes increasingly clear that the hope for a permanent peace deal in the short term is extremely slim, prompting speculative funds to continue selling off. April 21, 2026 - April 24, 2026, prices for multiple options continued to drop, with April 30 dropping from 21.5c to 10.5c, and May 31 from 53.5c to 39.5c. The reason is that as the end of April approaches, the market is realizing the impossibility of reaching a qualifying permanent peace deal in the short term, causing the irrational bubble to deflate further. April 20, 2026 - April 23, 2026, prices for multiple options experienced a significant pullback (plunge), with April 30 dropping from 37.5c to 8.5c, May 31 from 60.5c to 30.5c, and June 30 from 70.5c to 49c. The reason is that as deadlines approach, the market is rapidly realizing the impossibility of a permanent peace deal in the short term; the speculative bubble is bursting, and funds are accelerating their exit. April 19, 2026 - April 22, 2026, prices for multiple options experienced a significant pullback (plunge), with April 22 dropping from 18.5c to 0.15c, April 30 from 37.5c to 18.5c, May 31 from 60.5c to 45.5c, and June 30 from 70.5c to 60.5c. The reason is that as deadlines approach, the market is gradually realizing the impossibility of a permanent peace deal in the short term; the speculative bubble is bursting, and funds are accelerating their exit. April 17, 2026 - April 19, 2026, prices for multiple options experienced a significant pullback, with April 22 dropping from 30.5c to 15.5c, and April 30 from 46.5c to 33.5c. The reason is that irrational market sentiment began to cool, and some traders realized the realistic political hurdles of reaching a 'permanent' deal, leading to profit-taking. April 15, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of April 22 surged from 18.5c to 30.5c, driven by the continued spread of irrational speculative sentiment, as funds completely ignored realistic constraints to bid up the probability. April 13, 2026 - April 15, 2026, prices for multiple options continued to surge significantly, with June 30 soaring from 45.5c to 69.5c. The reason is that momentum trading and irrational speculative sentiment regarding the recent temporary ceasefire spiraled further out of control, completely ignoring the strict 'permanent peace' resolution criteria.

There is a severe divergence. The prediction market assigns a massive 73.5% probability to a permanent peace deal being reached by the end of the year, while mainstream international relations experts and political analysts uniformly agree that a 'permanent peace agreement' explicitly ending all military hostilities is virtually impossible in the short term (or even this year) due to long-standing strategic hostility and structural conflicts. This high probability is entirely a product of short-term irrational speculation by market participants.

There is a significant rule trap in this market: if multiple players tie for the most assists, the market resolves to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically. This strongly deviates from traditional dead heat rules or minute-based tiebreakers in sports betting, which could easily mislead bettors who do not read the fine print.