All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Pete Crow-Armstrong
YesNo
Ketel Marte
YesNo
Mookie Betts
YesNo
Francisco Lindor
YesNo
Fernando Tatis Jr.
YesNo
Bryce Harper
YesNo
Ronald Acuña Jr.
YesNo
Shohei Ohtani
YesNo
Kyle Schwarber
YesNo
Juan Soto
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 11:54 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is in a state of extreme irrationality, with the sum of 'Yes' prices reaching ~247%, creating a massive risk-free arbitrage opportunity by buying 'No' on all options. Fundamentally, Juan Soto (12.5c) is significantly undervalued; he hit 43 HRs in 2025, is projected for 50 HRs, and is in his prime after signing a historic contract. Conversely, Francisco Lindor (32.15c) is recovering from hamate bone surgery; while expected for Opening Day, his power could be sapped, making his price (equal to Ohtani's) absurd. Ketel Marte (32c) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (32.35c) are also trading far above realistic win probabilities (single players rarely exceed 20% preseason). Shohei Ohtani remains the fair favorite at ~25c, though his return to pitching in 2026 could slightly dilute his offensive focus.
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Movers
2026-03-14 to 2026-03-15, prices for Francisco Lindor (9c -> 32.15c), Ketel Marte (15.6c -> 32c), Bryce Harper (8.5c -> 19.3c), and Kyle Schwarber (8.5c -> 16c) surged collectively. This was not driven by fundamentals (Lindor actually has injury news) but likely by a liquidity crisis clearing the order book or an algorithmic malfunction.
2026-03-11 to 2026-03-12, Shohei Ohtani's price fluctuated violently between 32c and 43.5c, indicating extreme market instability.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media (e.g., ESPN's Jeff Passan) predicts Juan Soto could hit 50 home runs in 2026, making him a top MVP contender. However, in this market, Soto's price (12.5c) is the lowest among top-tier candidates, far below the injury-risk Lindor (32c). Furthermore, the market assigns >30% implied probability to multiple players simultaneously, which is statistically impossible (sum >> 100%) and contradicts any rational baseball analysis.
