MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections|$13.8k Vol|
time92 days 7 hrs

MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 06:00
Top Undervalued
+5¢
Aisha Farooqi(No)
+4.5¢
Andy Levin(Yes)
+3¢
Jeremy Moss(No)

MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner AI analysis: • +5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
As a favored candidate backed by the Michigan establishment, Jeremy Moss continues to maintain a sig...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Austin on May 5?
Weather|$24.4k Vol|
time1 days 19 hrs

Highest temperature in Austin on May 5?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
68°F or higher(No)
+0.4¢
66-67°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in Austin, Texas on May 5, 2026, will be...
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AI Analysis
How exactly does Wunderground define "finalized data" for the Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS) station, and at what specific time is the daily high temperature officially confirmed?
Best AI model on May 8? (Style Control Off)
Tech|$11.3k Vol|
time4 days 7 hrs

Best AI model on May 8? (Style Control Off)

Top Undervalued
+3.2¢
claude-opus-4-6-thinking(No)
+1.8¢
Other(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
claude-opus-4-6-thinking currently dominates the market with its price climbing to 94c. Given the la...
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Movers
May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of claude-opus-4-6-thinking surged from 73c to 94c, driven by its sustained dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard and increasing market confidence as the resolution date approaches. Concurrently, other competing models (e.g., claude-opus-4-7-thinking, gemini-3.1-pro-preview) saw their prices plummet by more than 10c down to near 1c, reflecting their fading chances of taking the top spot.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules for the May 8 Chatbot Arena market (ELI5): How exactly are tied AI models ranked using Arena scores and alphabetical order if their 'Style Control Off' ranks on lmarena.ai are identical?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 4?
Weather|$34.6k Vol|
time19 hrs 24 mins

Highest temperature in Seoul on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+17.5¢
16°C(Yes)
+14¢
17°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in Incheon, South Korea on May 4, 20...
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Rule Risk
The title asks for the temperature in Seoul, but the rules strictly specify the Incheon Intl Airport Station as the resolution source. Incheon's coastal climate can cause its temperature to differ from downtown Seoul. Additionally, resolution relies on whole-degree Celsius data strictly from Wunderground, so participants must be careful regarding the location mismatch and rounding rules.
AI Analysis
How reliable is the Wunderground history page for the Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI), and exactly when is the May 4th daily highest temperature data considered 'finalized' according to the resolution rules?
Highest temperature in Dallas on May 4?
Weather|$25.7k Vol|
time19 hrs 24 mins

Highest temperature in Dallas on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+0.7¢
72°F or higher(No)
+0.7¢
70-71°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Historically, the average high temperature in Dallas in early May is well into the 80s (°F) or highe...
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Exotics
Predicting the daily high temperature in a specific city falls under weather prediction markets. While not uncommon in professional trading (weather derivatives), it is quite niche for the general public. Few people actively track or bet on such specific meteorological metrics unless they live locally, giving it a moderate novelty factor.
AI Analysis
Based on the Wunderground rules for the Dallas Love Field (KDAL) station, how is the 'highest temperature' finalized, and how would post-finalization data revisions affect the market's resolution?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 4?
Weather|$44.5k Vol|
time19 hrs 24 mins

Highest temperature in Chicago on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+0.7¢
48°F or higher(No)
+0.2¢
46-47°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Multiple major weather forecast sources (including the National Weather Service and AccuWeather) con...
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AI Analysis
How will the highest temperature for Chicago on May 4 be determined, and what exactly are the resolution rules if the Wunderground data source records a fractional temperature?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Aisha Farooqi
YesNo
7¢
93¢
2¢
98¢
0¢
+5¢
Andy Levin
YesNo
8.5¢
91.5¢
13¢
87¢
+4.5¢
0¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 27, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Don Ufford's price spiked from 6.4c to 48.5c and then plunged to 18.45c. The reason is likely extreme low liquidity in this prediction market, where small trades can cause massive volatility without solid fundamental backing, followed by a correction driven by rational traders. March 12, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Andy Levin's price rose from 5.5c to 10c. The reason is likely speculative hedging as the April filing deadline approached; despite a lack of substantive news regarding his entry, some traders bought protection in this low-liquidity zone.

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