April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Mike Mazzei's price surged from 27.25c to 43.85c before dropping back to 28.4c, due to quick profit-taking following a short-term speculative influx lacking fundamental support. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Leisa Mitchell Haynes's price rose from 15.55c to 24.2c before falling to 8.2c, as the market rotated through second-tier candidates looking for dark horses, followed by cooling interest. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Matt Pinnell's price spiked from 3.45c to 16.95c and immediately crashed to 2.3c, driven by extreme short-term speculative buying that was quickly corrected. April 15, 2026 - April 17, 2026, Mike Mazzei's price surged from 30.75c to 51.45c before quickly falling back to 34.6c, due to short-term positive rumors sparking a capital influx that the market rapidly digested. April 15, 2026 - April 17, 2026, Genter Drummond's price dropped from 37.5c to 32c before rebounding to 45.5c, as his campaign re-established market dominance after a brief outflow. April 14, 2026 - April 17, 2026, Chip Keating's price rose from 9.45c to 17.25c before crashing to 6.45c, likely driven by quick speculative trading without fundamental backing. March 31, 2026 - April 3, 2026, Genter Drummond's price surged from 34.5c to 43.5c, as his campaign regained attention and market confidence recovered. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, Mike Mazzei's price surged from 24.15c to 32.25c, likely due to positive reception of recent events or statements, attracting more bets on his victory. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, Chip Keating's price surged from 7.1c to 18.7c, as market funds re-evaluated second-tier candidates, with some capital flowing from McCall to Keating. March 17, 2026 - March 19, 2026, Mike Mazzei's price doubled from 3.2c to 7.1c, while Chip Keating experienced volatility again. The reason is the market searching for potential dark horses outside of Drummond and McCall, leading to rapid capital rotation among low-priced options. March 8, 2026 - March 11, 2026, Chip Keating's price experienced a violent 'roller coaster', surging to a peak of 20.1c before crashing back to 9.25c within two days. The reason was a renewed bet on MAGA consolidation that heated up and then cooled down rapidly. March 5, 2026 - March 6, 2026, Chip Keating's price spiked from ~3.45c to 15.25c within hours, before settling back to 10.9c. The reason was a sudden surge of speculative buying. Feb 12, 2026 - Feb 18, 2026, Chip Keating's price doubled from 7.5c to 16.6c, establishing him as a top-tier contender.

April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026, Valeri Nichushkin's price surged from 18.9c to 32.3c. The reason is likely short-term speculation by capital betting on him making the upcoming finalists list. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, prices for nearly 10 candidates, including Kopitar, Reinhart, Hischier, Aho, and Hagel, all experienced an abnormal intra-day spike to around 45c-49c, before quickly crashing back to their baselines the next day. The reason is likely massive irrational market sweeping (or an API trading glitch), as this widespread uniform pump completely detached from reality. April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Sebastian Aho's price plummeted from 17.9c to 6.45c, due to a brief speculative influx of capital that quickly exited. March 28, 2026 - April 3, 2026, Nick Suzuki's price steadily climbed from 75c to 90.5c as his position as the strongest contender was solidified. March 4, 2026 - March 20, 2026, Anthony Cirelli's price crashed from ~48c down to 3c after rumors of him being a 'lock' were debunked.

April 30, 2026 - May 01, 2026, Alexander Vindman's price surged from 57c back to 87c (after briefly collapsing from 86c to 57c on Apr 30). This was likely caused by a liquidity shock from a large sell order or temporary speculative panic. However, since the filing deadline had passed and no major opponents filed, fundamental buyers quickly stepped in to restore his price to overwhelming frontrunner levels. April 18, 2026 - April 24, 2026, The market maintained an extremely low-volatility sideways trend. Alexander Vindman remained stable around 89c, and Jared Moskowitz hovered near 6.5c, with no significant price movements exceeding 10c. March 21, 2026 - March 27, 2026, The market continued its low-volatility sideways drift. Jared Moskowitz's price slowly bled from 6c to below 5c, further cementing Vindman's commanding lead at ~86c. March 14, 2026 - March 20, 2026, The market cooled from previous speculative volatility and entered a consolidation phase. Jared Moskowitz's price fluctuated narrowly between 5c-7c, failing to sustain previous momentum, while Alexander Vindman stabilized at 88c-89c. This indicates fading expectations for a surprise Moskowitz run, with capital flowing back to Vindman based on fundamentals. Feb 27, 2026 - Mar 05, 2026, Jared Moskowitz's price more than doubled from ~6c to 13.6c, while frontrunner Alexander Vindman corrected from ~89c to ~83c. This indicates a structural shift over the past week where the market significantly increased its speculative hedge on a Moskowitz entry, although no single daily move exceeded the 10c volatility threshold. Feb 21, 2026 - Feb 23, 2026, The market entered a period of extreme stability, with no option moving more than 1 cent, reflecting a solidified consensus on Vindman's lead at that time.

While weather prediction has become a recognized category on some prediction platforms, betting on the highest daily temperature in Wellington, New Zealand, remains a relatively niche and novel topic for the general public.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the Yes price for 16°C surged from 38.5c to 99.6c, while the 17°C option plummeted from 55c to 0.1c. This was because as the day progressed in Wellington local time, the actual recorded temperature data for May 2 became available, confirming a high of 16°C, and the market priced this in definitively. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the Yes price for 17°C surged from 32c to 54.5c, while the Yes price for 15°C plummeted from 25.5c to 4.5c. This occurred because, as May 2 approached, updated short-term weather forecast models revised the expected daytime high temperature upwards, ruling out the cooler scenario (15°C) and shifting probabilities toward a warmer band (17°C). April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, no other significant price movements exceeding 10 cents were observed over the prior three days.

Between May 1, 2026, and May 2, 2026, the price of the '54°F or higher' option increased from 44c to 57.5c, as weather models gained confidence in higher temperature outcomes (54°F and above) as the date approached. Between April 30, 2026, and May 1, 2026, the price of the '48-49°F' option dropped from 12.5c to 2.45c, as weather forecasts became clearer closer to the date, making lower temperature intervals highly unlikely.