Retrieve and analyze the order book data for the MI-12 election page, combining the current status of extremely low volume ($355) to assess the impact of the bid-ask spread on entry costs, and determine if there is a risk of being unable to close positions due to liquidity exhaustion.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve and analyze the order book data for the MI-12 election page, combining the current status of extremely low volume ($355) to assess the impact of the bid-ask spread on entry costs, and determine if there is a risk of being unable to close positions due to liquidity exhaustion.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for historical election data and the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Michigan's 12th District (MI-12) to verify if the district remains a "Solid Democratic" seat, and check for any major scandals or redistricting news affecting the incumbent Rashida Tlaib.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for historical election data and the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Michigan's 12th District (MI-12) to verify if the district remains a "Solid Democratic" seat, and check for any major scandals or redistricting news affecting the incumbent Rashida Tlaib.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on current odds and the November 2026 settlement date, calculate the annualized return (APY) on capital for going long on the "Democratic Party," and compare it with concurrent Treasury or DeFi stablecoin yields to quantitatively assess the opportunity cost of this long-cycle bet.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on current odds and the November 2026 settlement date, calculate the annualized return (APY) on capital for going long on the "Democratic Party," and compare it with concurrent Treasury or DeFi stablecoin yields to quantitatively assess the opportunity cost of this long-cycle bet.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$7,940 Vol|

228 days 21 hrs

MI-12 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Democratic Party

YesNo

94.5¢

5.5¢

99¢

1¢

+4.5¢

0¢

Republican Party

YesNo

4.5¢

95.5¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+3.5¢

AI Insights:

03.14 17:37 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

MI-12 is one of the safest Democratic strongholds in Michigan (Cook PVI D+23). Incumbent Democrat Rashida Tlaib secured landslide victories in 2022 and 2024 with 70%-77% of the vote. The district, covering parts of Detroit and Dearborn, has demographics that overwhelmingly favor Democrats. While the market prices this at 93c, safe seats typically trade at 98c-99c. With no signs of a serious challenge or black swan event, the Democratic option is significantly undervalued.

Sign up to view more information

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. Major political forecasters (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) rate MI-12 as 'Solid/Safe Democrat,' implying a win probability near 100%. However, the prediction market implies only a 93% probability. This incorrectly suggests a 7% chance for a Republican or third-party upset, which is unrealistic in a D+23 district.

MI-12 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner