With less than 2 days remaining until the March 31 settlement, there are no official announcements o...

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: The current price for 'No' is 98.85c. Since the probability of a FR/UK/DE strike on Iran in less tha...

With less than 2 days remaining until the March 31 deadline, the likelihood of France, the UK, or Ge...

The definition of 'strike' is specific (aerial bombs, drones, or missiles) and explicitly excludes interceptions, SAMs, ground incursions, and FPV strikes. The target must be Iranian soil or embassies. The main risk lies in distinguishing proxy warfare (e.g., Houthis) from state military action, and attribution challenges in joint coalition operations (e.g., NATO). While the rules are detailed, the 'fog of war' could make verifying 'who launched it' and 'did it hit soil' contentious.

While tensions in the Middle East are high and Iran's relations with the West are poor, a direct strike on Iranian soil by the UK, France, or Germany (as opposed to striking proxies or targets in Syria/Iraq) would be a massive geopolitical escalation. This is not a routine topic of discussion and holds 'black swan' characteristics, making it moderately exotic.

A direct strike on Iranian soil by the UK, France, or Germany would mark a severe escalation of the Middle East conflict, significantly raising the risk of a Strait of Hormuz blockade. This would cause Crude Oil prices to spike violently (Extreme impact). Safe-haven assets like Gold and the Dollar (DXY) would rally, while the S&P 500 would face panic selling. This is a classic geopolitical tail-risk event.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'After March 31' YES heavily. Although priced high at 98.6c, given the objective reality of the Congressional recess, this outcome is nearly certain and serves as a low-risk yield opportunity (Soft Arb). Plan Description: Buying an almost completely certain event at 98.6c yields a net profit of 1.4c in about 1-2 days. Wh...

As of March 29, 2026, the Senate and House remain deadlocked over the DHS funding bill. Both chamber...

March 27, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of 'After March 31' surged from ~10c to over 98c, while 'March 28-31' crashed from 75c to ~1c. This was driven by House Speaker Mike Johnson rejecting the Senate-passed compromise DHS funding bill and passing a 60-day stopgap measure instead. With both chambers subsequently entering a two-week recess, hopes of resolving the shutdown by the end of March were completely dashed. March 26, 2026 - March 27 noon, 2026, the price of 'March 28-31' surged from ~20c to a peak of 75c, while 'After March 31' crashed from >70c to ~10c. This was driven by the Senate reaching an agreement and passing a funding bill in the early morning, leading to extreme market optimism that the House would swiftly follow suit. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the prior window option dropped from 11c to near 0c, as the time window was closing and the partisan impasse persisted.

The market remains severely overpriced, with the sum of all 'Yes' options exceeding 100 cents, imply...

Mar 25, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026, Mauricio Pochettino's price surged from 11c to 20c (a 9c jump, near threshold) due to market rumors of re-established contact with Spurs' hierarchy. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 24, 2026, Robert De Zerbi's price rose from 41c to 44.5c, and further to 47c on Mar 26, driven by speculation over his departure from Brighton following poor recent results, attracting significant volume. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 24, 2026, Mauricio Pochettino's price crashed from 35c to 22.5c, bottoming at 11c on Mar 25 (a 24c drop), as early return rumors failed to materialize, leading to profit-taking. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, Robert De Zerbi's price surged from 24.5c to 41c (a 16.5c increase) after media reports highlighted him as the top target for the Spurs job. Mar 11, 2026 - Mar 13, 2026, Edin Terzic's price crashed from 18.3c to 8.6c as market hype faded and volume shifted toward Pochettino. Mar 09, 2026 - Mar 11, 2026, Ryan Mason's price surged from 8.35c to 17.95c, driven by speculative betting on his recurring role as a caretaker in the absence of a clear permanent successor (despite rules excluding interim appointments).

Market pricing significantly deviates from rationality, with the sum of implied probabilities for all 'Yes' options well over 100%, indicating irrational speculation. Furthermore, the pricing for interim managers (e.g., Ryan Mason) does not adequately reflect the market rules excluding non-permanent appointments.

With less than 2 days left until the March 31 resolution, the time window for a 'Yes' event is almos...

Rule clarity is moderate. While 'downs or disables' is relatively clear, the condition 'broadly attributed to a Mexican cartel' could be contentious in practice. If a small drone is downed, officials might not issue a specific attribution statement, or media reports might be vague, leading to resolution difficulties. Furthermore, ensuring the definition of 'federal government' covers routine operations by agencies like CBP is crucial, though they are federal.

This is a relatively niche and specific event prediction. While drone issues at the US-Mexico border are growing, betting specifically on 'whether the US government will use kinetic or electronic warfare to down a drone within a specific short timeframe' falls into an unconventional political/military sub-category, not a mainstream topic.