[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, given the low liquidity (~$11k volume), critically analyze the order book depth and spread for the 'Other' option (likely a proxy for incumbent Senator Tina Smith). Assess whether current odds fairly reflect the probability of her re-election bid, or if they are distorted by speculative capital chasing high-profile challengers like Ilhan Omar.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, given the low liquidity (~$11k volume), critically analyze the order book depth and spread for the 'Other' option (likely a proxy for incumbent Senator Tina Smith). Assess whether current odds fairly reflect the probability of her re-election bid, or if they are distorted by speculative capital chasing high-profile challengers like Ilhan Omar.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Key Players Mining] Core Verification: Search for the latest official statements from incumbent MN Senator Tina Smith regarding her 2026 re-election. Since she is not explicitly listed, her running would likely resolve the market to 'Other'. Also, verify if listed candidates like Ilhan Omar or Steve Simon have officially formed exploratory committees to distinguish actual contenders from speculative placeholders.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Key Players Mining] Core Verification: Search for the latest official statements from incumbent MN Senator Tina Smith regarding her 2026 re-election. Since she is not explicitly listed, her running would likely resolve the market to 'Other'. Also, verify if listed candidates like Ilhan Omar or Steve Simon have officially formed exploratory committees to distinguish actual contenders from speculative placeholders.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Low Liquidity Strategy] 'Stink Bid' Guide: Given the extremely low market liquidity (<$12k total volume), market orders face high slippage risks. Formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy: Calculate price levels 20-30% below the current market price for volatile options like Ilhan Omar or Angie Craig to place limit buy orders, aiming to catch sudden panic selling or liquidity gaps.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Low Liquidity Strategy] 'Stink Bid' Guide: Given the extremely low market liquidity (<$12k total volume), market orders face high slippage risks. Formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy: Calculate price levels 20-30% below the current market price for volatile options like Ilhan Omar or Angie Craig to place limit buy orders, aiming to catch sudden panic selling or liquidity gaps.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$18.3k Vol|

144 days 3 hrs

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Angie Craig

YesNo

16.5¢

83.5¢

25¢

75¢

+8.5¢

0¢

Peggy Flanagan

YesNo

80¢

20¢

75¢

25¢

0¢

+5¢

Melisa López Franzen

YesNo

2.1¢

97.9¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.1¢

Ilhan Omar

YesNo

1.5¢

98.5¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.5¢

Keith Ellison

YesNo

1.25¢

98.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.2¢

Melisa Hortman

YesNo

1.15¢

98.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.1¢

David Wellstone

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1¢

Betty McCollum

YesNo

0.8¢

99.2¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.8¢

Steve Simon

YesNo

0.55¢

99.45¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.5¢

Jacob Frey

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

AI Insights:

03.17 23:57 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Given that Melisa Hortman is deceased and Melisa López Franzen has dropped out, the intrinsic value ...

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Divergence

There is a significant irrational divergence regarding 'zombie candidates.' Approximately 5% of the total probability is assigned to candidates who have either dropped out (Franzen) or are deceased (Hortman). This completely contradicts real-world political facts (they cannot win), indicating uncorrected inefficiencies and dead money in the prediction market.

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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