MLB: AL Manager of the Year
baseball|$14.0k Vol|
time266 days 19 hrs

MLB: AL Manager of the Year - AI Found +47.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 2 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+47.5¢
Derek Shelton(No)
+47¢
Kurt Suzuki(No)
+46.5¢
Dan Wilson(No)

MLB: AL Manager of the Year AI analysis: • +47.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The 2026 AL Manager of the Year race is open. Currently, prices are highly irrational, hovering arou...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Major League Baseball: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner
baseball|$111.1k Vol|
time230 days 19 hrs

Major League Baseball: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner

Top Undervalued
+21¢
Kyle Schwarber(No)
+14.5¢
Shohei Ohtani(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market is in a state of extreme irrationality, with the sum of 'Yes' prices reaching ~247%, crea...
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Movers
2026-03-14 to 2026-03-15, prices for Francisco Lindor (9c -> 32.15c), Ketel Marte (15.6c -> 32c), Bryce Harper (8.5c -> 19.3c), and Kyle Schwarber (8.5c -> 16c) surged collectively. This was not driven by fundamentals (Lindor actually has injury news) but likely by a liquidity crisis clearing the order book or an algorithmic malfunction. 2026-03-11 to 2026-03-12, Shohei Ohtani's price fluctuated violently between 32c and 43.5c, indicating extreme market instability.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media (e.g., ESPN's Jeff Passan) predicts Juan Soto could hit 50 home runs in 2026, making him a top MVP contender. However, in this market, Soto's price (12.5c) is the lowest among top-tier candidates, far below the injury-risk Lindor (32c). Furthermore, the market assigns >30% implied probability to multiple players simultaneously, which is statistically impossible (sum >> 100%) and contradicts any rational baseball analysis.
Pro Baseball: 2026 National League Champion
Sports|$1.4m Vol|
time218 days 19 hrs

Pro Baseball: 2026 National League Champion

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Chicago Cubs(No)
+0.5¢
St. Louis Cardinals(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Los Angeles Dodgers are currently priced around 43c, which is justified by their 'super team' ro...
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MLB World Series Champion 2026
Sports|$7.8m Vol|
time218 days 19 hrs

MLB World Series Champion 2026

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
Los Angeles Dodgers(No)
+3.8¢
Houston Astros(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) are currently priced at 27.5%, which remains too high given the high v...
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Divergence
The market pricing for the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) at 27.5% is significantly higher than the 15-18% championship probability typically assigned by professional sports analytics models (e.g., FanGraphs, PECOTA). This divergence stems primarily from 'large market bias' among prediction market participants and over-enthusiasm for superstar rosters, ignoring the high variance of the MLB postseason.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket event page to analyze the order book depth and spread for the 2026 World Series winner, and integrate the latest 2026 Spring Training updates (roster chemistry, injuries for top teams like Dodgers/Yankees) to reassess the fair value of current odds.
Major League Baseball: 2026 NL Central Champion
Sports|$81.0k Vol|
time197 days 19 hrs

Major League Baseball: 2026 NL Central Champion

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
Pittsburgh Pirates(No)
+5¢
Milwaukee Brewers(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of all 'Yes' prices in the market is approximately 114%, indicating significant premium (Vig...
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Polymarket prices imply a >50% win probability for the Cubs, which is typically higher than preseason projections from mainstream statistical models like PECOTA or FanGraphs (often around 35-40%). Market participants appear to be over-betting on the 'big name' favorite, underestimating the traditional parity and chaos of the NL Central division.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Derek Shelton
YesNo
49.5¢
50.5¢
2¢
98¢
0¢
+47.5¢
Kurt Suzuki
YesNo
50¢
50¢
3¢
97¢
0¢
+47¢

Expand to view all 15 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Divergence
The current market prices (all around 50%) are completely detached from mainstream baseball analysis. This represents an unpriced state due to early low liquidity, mathematically impossibly implying that multiple people each have a 50% chance of winning a mutually exclusive award.

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