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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Birk Risa
YesNo
Marcelo Silva
YesNo
Miles Robinson
YesNo
Jackson Ragen
YesNo
Jakob Glesnes
YesNo
Tristan Blackmon
YesNo
Matt Miazga
YesNo
Micael
YesNo
Walker Zimmerman
YesNo
Aaron Long
YesNo
Joel Waterman
YesNo
Lalas Abubakar
YesNo
Carlos Terán
YesNo
Kevin Long
YesNo
Oleksandr Svatok
YesNo
Yeimar Gómez Andrade
YesNo
Rudy Camacho
YesNo
Gabriele Corbo
YesNo
Tim Parker
YesNo
Robert Voloder
YesNo
Jack Elliott
YesNo
Maya Yoshida
YesNo
Stian Gregersen
YesNo
Christopher McVey
YesNo
Joakim Nilsson
YesNo
Eddie Segura
YesNo
Noah Eile
YesNo
Andrés Reyes
YesNo
Erik Sviatchenko
YesNo
Andreas Maxsø
YesNo
Miguel Tapias
YesNo
Sigurd Rosted
YesNo
Tomás Avilés
YesNo
Henry Kessler
YesNo
Brendan Hines-Ike
YesNo
David Brekalo
YesNo
Ranko Veselinović
YesNo
Mauricio Pineda
YesNo
Jalen Neal
YesNo
Dany Rosero
YesNo
Adilson Malanda
YesNo
Maximiliano Falcón
YesNo
Lucas Bartlett
YesNo
Yevhen Cheberko
YesNo
Andrew Privett
YesNo
Enea Mihaj
YesNo
Sebastien Ibeagha
YesNo
Thiago Martins
YesNo
Kamal Miller
YesNo
Zac McGraw
YesNo
Dave Romney
YesNo
Rodrigues
YesNo
Michael Boxall
YesNo
Daniel Munie
YesNo
Jack Maher
YesNo
Justen Glad
YesNo
Donovan Pines
YesNo
Sean Nealis
YesNo
Robin Jansson
YesNo
Nkosi Tafari
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 17:39 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current market is in a state of extreme irrationality. Based on the early 2026 season context (mid-March), no single defender warrants a probability near 20%, yet the market prices dozens of average starters (e.g., Birk Risa, Marcelo Silva) around 19 cents. This results in an implied probability sum exceeding 500%, indicative of a liquidity vacuum or market maker error. Conversely, genuine contenders like Walker Zimmerman (3.3c) and Aaron Long (2.5c) are severely undervalued. Fair value should be derived from historical pedigree and team strength; favorites typically should not exceed 10% win probability this early in the season.
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Movers
2026-03-12 to 2026-03-13, the prices of dozens of options, including Jackson Ragen, Ranko Veselinović, and Birk Risa, collectively surged from ~3 cents to ~22 cents, before settling back to ~19 cents on March 14. The reason is a structural market reset or liquidity dry-up rather than fundamental news. This collective and uniform volatility suggests a correction of previous underpricing or an algorithmic market maker glitch, as it is impossible for dozens of players to simultaneously become top favorites.
Divergence
Severe divergence exists. Market pricing implies that over 30 players each have a ~19% chance of winning (sum of probabilities >500%), which is mathematically impossible. Furthermore, actual All-Star caliber players (like Zimmerman) are priced extremely low while average players are priced high, contradicting MLS official criteria and mainstream media predictions.
